Alchemix ALCX
ALCX cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
88.8% below its 365-day high of $20.38 (2025-11-06), +26.0% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
89% below its rolling 365-day high, 349 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +26.0% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $1.81 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 5.5 (max 11)
- Current low
- $1.81 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 50%
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 3g 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $1.90 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 20)
- Current low
- $2.00 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $2.82
- Cycle-low confidence
- 24%
- Confirmed lows
- 44
Daily
- Last bars
- 1r 2Dr 1g 1r 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $2.48 · 2026-10-10 (daily)
- Position
- 11 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $2.00 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $2.52
- Cycle-low confidence
- 70%
- Confirmed lows
- 335
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.81 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Cycle-low confidence 50%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.90 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 2.00 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 2.82. Cycle-low confidence 24%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 2.48 (2026-10-10), day 11 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 2.00 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 2.52. Cycle-low confidence 70%.
- Red List: 89% below the 2025-11-06 high; +26% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 96% decline over 27 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +26% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.71 (cheap); -84% vs the 200-week average; -100% from the all-time high.
Has Alchemix bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ALCX snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.81 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.90 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $2.00 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $2.82, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $2.48 from 2026-10-10. A newer candidate at $2.00 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $2.52, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Alchemix below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 88.8% below its rolling 365-day high of $20.38 from 2025-11-06. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.9% relative to its all-time high of $2,066 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Red List
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $50.40 · Apr 2024
- Trough
- $1.81 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -96.4% over 27 months
- Above trough
- +26.0%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $3.92
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (11 bars))
- False bottom
- $6.54 · Jun 2025 (3 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $1.90 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $2.20
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 0.43 % | 0.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.27 x | 13.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 1509 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.9 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $6.8M
- Fully diluted
- $8.7M
- 24h volume
- $29.2K
- Circulating
- 2,528,681
- All-time high
- $2,066 · 2021-03-20 (-99.9%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.706 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -83.5%
- Pi cycle
- 0.226
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-11-16 (1801 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- alchemix
Continue your cycle research
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