ARPA ARPA
ARPA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 50 bullish lean
55.0% below its 365-day high of $0.0234 (2026-01-19), +38.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-20. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +38.7% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ug 1g 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.0076 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 5.5 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.0076 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 24% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 2Ug 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.00887 · 2026-09-13
- Position
- 6 of median 4.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.00961 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0119
- Cycle-low confidence
- 52% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 51
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 3g 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.00972 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 1 of median 5 (max 22)
- Current low
- $0.00961 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 45%
- Confirmed lows
- 328
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.0076 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Cycle-low confidence 24%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.008873 (Sep 2026), week 6 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.009606 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.01191. Cycle-low confidence 52%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.009721 (2026-10-20), day 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 45%.
- Red List: 55% below the 2026-01-19 high; +39% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 95% decline over 27 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +39% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.10 (neutral); -70% vs the 200-week average; -95% from the all-time high.
Has ARPA bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ARPA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0076 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00887 from 2026-09-13. A newer candidate at $0.00961 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0119, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00972 from 2026-10-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is ARPA below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 55.0% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.0234 from 2026-01-19. Separately, CoinGecko reports -96.1% relative to its all-time high of $0.2686 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.1450 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $0.0076 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -94.8% over 27 months
- Above trough
- +38.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0104
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (14 bars))
- False bottom
- $0.0162 · Jun 2025 (3 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.00887 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.0112
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 33.41 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.15 x | 13.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 901 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.0 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $19.7M
- Fully diluted
- $22.6M
- 24h volume
- $6.6M
- Circulating
- 1,742,888,889 of 2,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $0.2686 · 2021-11-03 (-96.1%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 1.099 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -70.5%
- Pi cycle
- 0.445
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-10-19 (1829 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- arpa
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources