Aurora AURORA
AURORA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
59.6% below its 365-day high of $0.1483 (2025-10-30), +315.9% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
60% below its rolling 365-day high, 356 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +315.9% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2D 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0144 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 7 (max 11)
- Current low
- $0.0144 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 6
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0146 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 29)
- Current low
- $0.0144 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 72% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 28
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dg 3r 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0545 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.0545 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 22%
- Confirmed lows
- 229
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0144 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 7. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.01459 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 72%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.05451 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 22%.
- Watch: 60% below the 2025-10-30 high; +316% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 98% decline over 32 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +316% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 0.028).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 2.07 (neutral); -52% vs the 200-week average; -96% from the all-time high.
Has Aurora bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the AURORA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0144 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0146 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0545 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Aurora below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 59.6% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.1483 from 2025-10-30. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.8% relative to its all-time high of $35.40 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.7350 · Dec 2023
- Trough
- $0.0144 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -98.0% over 32 months
- Above trough
- +315.9%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0179
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $0.0655 · Jul 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.0146 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.0280
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.34 % | 2.8 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.35 x | 12.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 524 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 1009.7 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 10.17 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 99.0 % | 10.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $45.4M
- Fully diluted
- $61.3M
- 24h volume
- $609.3K
- Circulating
- 740,861,957 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $35.40 · 2022-01-16 (-99.8%)
- TVL
- $4.5M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $3.7K
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- $182.9K
- Mayer multiple
- 2.072 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -51.5%
- Pi cycle
- 0.434
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-09-06 (1507 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- aurora-near
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources