Caldera ERA
ERA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 77.5 bullish lean
81.4% below its 365-day high of $0.3875 (2025-11-05), +32.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +32.7% above the Sep 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 3r 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0542 · 2026-09-30
- Position
- 1 of median 5 (max 5)
- Current low
- $0.0542 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 3g 2Dr 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0565 · 2026-10-18
- Position
- 1 of median 4.5 (max 15)
- Current low
- $0.0565 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85%
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 1r 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0565 · 2026-10-15 (weekly)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 19)
- Current low
- $0.0565 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85%
- Confirmed lows
- 74
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.0542 (Sep 2026), month 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.0565 (Oct 2026), week 1 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0565 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Red List: 81% below the 2025-11-05 high; +33% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 97% decline over 14 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +33% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-10-21 (trigger 0.0822).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.79 (cheap); -96% from the all-time high.
Has Caldera bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ERA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0542 from 2026-09-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0565 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0565 from 2026-10-15. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Caldera below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 81.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.3875 from 2025-11-05. Separately, CoinGecko reports -96.2% relative to its all-time high of $1.88 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List · Phoenix weekly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Red List → Red List · Phoenix weekly
- First observed: Red List
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $2.08 · Jul 2025
- Trough
- $0.0542 · Sep 2026
- Decline
- -97.4% over 14 months
- Above trough
- +32.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0723
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.0565 confirmed 2026-10-21 · trigger $0.0822
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 22.5 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 8.46 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 5.72 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 1197 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 188389.6 x | 0 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 216.0 % | 10.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.3 yrs | 2.2 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $11.3M
- Fully diluted
- $64.7M
- 24h volume
- $956.3K
- Circulating
- 174,750,000 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $1.88 · 2025-07-17 (-96.2%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $5
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- $3.1K
- Mayer multiple
- 0.79 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.253
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-07-17 (462 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- caldera
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources