Lighter LIGHTER
LIGHTER cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List held mixed
39.0% below its 365-day high of $5.57 (2026-09-24), +336.3% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.7790 · 2026-03-31
- Position
- 7 of median ? (max ?)
- Current low
- $2.83 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $4.14
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 1
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ur 2Dr 1g 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $4.00 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4.0 (max 6)
- Current low
- $2.83 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $3.99
- Cycle-low confidence
- 92%
- Confirmed lows
- 7
Daily
- Last bars
- 1r 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $2.83 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 11)
- Current low
- $2.83 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 32%
- Confirmed lows
- 53
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.779 (Mar 2026). Current low 2.83 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 4.14.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 4.00 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 2.83 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 3.99. Cycle-low confidence 92%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 2.83 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 32%.
- Amber List: 39% below the 2026-09-24 high; +336% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.44 (neutral); -36% from the all-time high.
Has Lighter bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the LIGHTER snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.7790 from 2026-03-31. A newer candidate at $2.83 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $4.14, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $4.00 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $2.83 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $3.99, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $2.83 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Lighter below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 39.0% below its rolling 365-day high of $5.57 from 2026-09-24.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-10-14. 8 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List
Fundamentals
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 0.8 yrs | 0.8 / 10 |
| liquidity | could not look — no source data | |
| overhang | could not look — no source data | |
| size | could not look — no source data | |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
1 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- —
- Fully diluted
- —
- 24h volume
- —
- Circulating
- —
- All-time high
- — · — (—)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.444 · neutral
- On Coinbase since
- 2026-01-15 (280 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- unresolved
Continue your cycle research
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