Decentraland MANA
MANA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 50 mixed
65.8% below its 365-day high of $0.2589 (2025-10-27), +45.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +45.7% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.0608 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 4.0 (max 11)
- Current low
- $0.0608 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 20%
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 1r 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0698 · 2026-09-13
- Position
- 6 of median 5.0 (max 16)
- Current low
- $0.0806 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0993
- Cycle-low confidence
- 56% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 47
Daily
- Last bars
- 3r 2Dr 1r 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0806 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 4.0 (max 25)
- Current low
- $0.0806 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 26%
- Confirmed lows
- 375
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.0608 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 20%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0698 (Sep 2026), week 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.0806 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.0993. Cycle-low confidence 56%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0806 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 26%.
- Amber List: 66% below the 2025-10-27 high; +46% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 93% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (3 bars)), now +46% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-20.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.12 (neutral); -73% vs the 200-week average; -98% from the all-time high.
Has Decentraland bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the MANA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0608 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0698 from 2026-09-13. A newer candidate at $0.0806 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0993, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0806 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Decentraland below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 65.8% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2589 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -98.5% relative to its all-time high of $5.85 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.8564 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $0.0608 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -92.9% over 18 months
- Above trough
- +45.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (3 bars)) · trigger $0.0860
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (7 bars))
- False bottom
- $0.2229 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.0698 confirmed 2026-09-20 · trigger $0.0789
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 41.81 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.12 x | 14.1 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 195 # | 3 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.5 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $201.6M
- Fully diluted
- $225.8M
- 24h volume
- $84.3M
- Circulating
- 1,958,328,028
- All-time high
- $5.85 · 2021-11-25 (-98.5%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.117 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -73.2%
- Pi cycle
- 0.38
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-04-20 (2011 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- decentraland
Continue your cycle research
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