Marinade staked SOL MSOL
MSOL cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 43.5 mixed
45.1% below its 365-day high of $273.20 (2025-10-27), +82.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-20. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +82.5% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $98.59 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $82.16 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 57%
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $134.56 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 18)
- Current low
- $142.12 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $158.92
- Cycle-low confidence
- 52% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 36
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ur 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $142.12 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5 (max 17)
- Current low
- $142.12 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 16%
- Confirmed lows
- 260
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 98.59 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Cycle-low confidence 57%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 134.56 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 142.12 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 158.92. Cycle-low confidence 52%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 142.12 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 16%.
- Amber List: 45% below the 2025-10-27 high; +82% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 77% decline over 17 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +82% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.23 (neutral); +5% vs the 200-week average; -54% from the all-time high.
Has Marinade staked SOL bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the MSOL snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $98.59 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $134.56 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $142.12 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $158.92, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $142.12 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Marinade staked SOL below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 45.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $273.20 from 2025-10-27.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $358.00 · Jan 2025
- Trough
- $82.16 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -77.1% over 17 months
- Above trough
- +82.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $119.13
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (11 bars))
- False bottom
- $164.87 · Jun 2025 (3 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $134.56 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $159.35
| decline | 23.5 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.0 yrs | 9.9 / 10 |
| liquidity | could not look — no source data | |
| overhang | could not look — no source data | |
| size | could not look — no source data | |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
1 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- —
- Fully diluted
- —
- 24h volume
- —
- Circulating
- —
- All-time high
- — · — (—)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.227 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- +4.7%
- Pi cycle
- 0.484
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-11-03 (1449 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- unresolved
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources