PolySwarm NCT
NCT cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Phoenix · weekly · score 50 mixed
68.4% below its 365-day high of $0.0283 (2026-08-26), +119.4% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
68% below its rolling 365-day high, 56 days after the high.
Phoenix weekly: stopped falling by the rules, +119.4% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 1r 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.0056 · 2026-03-31
- Position
- 7 of median 6.5 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.00408 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0283
- Cycle-low confidence
- 77% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 7
Weekly
- Last bars
- 1g 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.00408 · 2026-08-16
- Position
- 10 of median 6 (max 17)
- Current low
- $0.00408 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85%
- Confirmed lows
- 34
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 1r 2Dr 1g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.00866 · 2026-10-15 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 25)
- Current low
- $0.00862 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.00975
- Cycle-low confidence
- 44%
- Confirmed lows
- 278
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.0056 (Mar 2026), month 7 of a cycle that has typically run 6.5. Current low 0.00408 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.02829. Cycle-low confidence 77%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.00408 (Aug 2026), week 10 of a cycle that has typically run 6. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.00866 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.00862 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.00975. Cycle-low confidence 44%.
- Red List: 68% below the 2026-08-26 high; +119% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 96% decline over 19 months, weekly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +119% above the trough; no weekly pullback yet — the entry is the pullback, never the chase.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.22 (neutral); -40% vs the 200-week average; -95% from the all-time high.
Has PolySwarm bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the NCT snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0056 from 2026-03-31. A newer candidate at $0.00408 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0283, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00408 from 2026-08-16. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00866 from 2026-10-15. A newer candidate at $0.00862 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.00975, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is PolySwarm below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 68.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.0283 from 2026-08-26. Separately, CoinGecko reports -94.8% relative to its all-time high of $0.1718 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Red List · Phoenix weekly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.1100 · Jan 2025
- Trough
- $0.00408 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -96.3% over 19 months
- Above trough
- +119.4%
- Monthly
- not yet · trigger $0.0283
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- $0.0163 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- awaiting the first weekly pullback
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 10 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 0.66 % | 0.5 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 918 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.8 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $19.0M
- Fully diluted
- $19.0M
- 24h volume
- $125.5K
- Circulating
- 1,885,500,782 of 1,885,913,076 max
- All-time high
- $0.1718 · 2022-01-13 (-94.8%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.218 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -39.5%
- Pi cycle
- 0.481
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-01-13 (1743 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- polyswarm
Continue your cycle research
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