RARI RARI
RARI cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 55 mixed
76.5% below its 365-day high of $0.6456 (2025-11-04), +102.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
76% below its rolling 365-day high, 351 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +102.7% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0750 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 5.0 (max 15)
- Current low
- $0.0750 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 37% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 1r 2Ug 1r 1r 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0750 · 2026-08-23
- Position
- 9 of median 6.5 (max 33)
- Current low
- $0.0750 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 40% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 35
Daily
- Last bars
- 1r 2Dg 1r 1g 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.1369 · 2026-10-15 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 28)
- Current low
- $0.1369 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 53%
- Confirmed lows
- 312
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.075 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 37%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.075 (Aug 2026), week 9 of a cycle that has typically run 6.5. Cycle-low confidence 40%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1369 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 53%.
- Amber List: 76% below the 2025-11-04 high; +103% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 99% decline over 28 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +103% above the trough; no weekly pullback yet — the entry is the pullback, never the chase.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.32 (neutral); -88% vs the 200-week average; -99% from the all-time high.
Has RARI bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the RARI snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0750 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0750 from 2026-08-23. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1369 from 2026-10-15. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is RARI below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 76.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.6456 from 2025-11-04. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.7% relative to its all-time high of $46.70 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Red List · Phoenix weekly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Red List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $6.06 · Apr 2024
- Trough
- $0.0750 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -98.8% over 28 months
- Above trough
- +102.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.1220
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- awaiting the first weekly pullback
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 2.69 % | 7.3 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.02 x | 14.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 2064 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.0 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $3.1M
- Fully diluted
- $3.2M
- 24h volume
- $83.1K
- Circulating
- 24,525,443 of 25,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $46.70 · 2021-03-29 (-99.7%)
- TVL
- $0 (chain)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- $15.8K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.323 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -88.1%
- Pi cycle
- 0.287
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-10-14 (1834 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- rarible check
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources