Safe SAFE
SAFE cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 40 bullish lean
62.1% below its 365-day high of $0.2836 (2025-10-27), +43.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
62% below its rolling 365-day high, 359 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +43.1% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 1g 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.0752 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 8 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.0752 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 43% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 4
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dg 3r 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0880 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 13)
- Current low
- $0.0982 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1428
- Cycle-low confidence
- 36% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 23
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 3g 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.1015 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 1 of median 5 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.0982 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 58%
- Confirmed lows
- 156
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.0752 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 8. Cycle-low confidence 43%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.08795 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.09822 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1428. Cycle-low confidence 36%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.1015 (2026-10-20), day 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 58%.
- Watch: 62% below the 2025-10-27 high; +43% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 97% decline over 26 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (4 bars)), now +43% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.98 (cheap); -96% from the all-time high.
Has Safe bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the SAFE snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0752 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0880 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.0982 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1428, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1015 from 2026-10-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Safe below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 62.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2836 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -97.0% relative to its all-time high of $3.56 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $2.70 · Apr 2024
- Trough
- $0.0752 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -97.2% over 26 months
- Above trough
- +43.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (4 bars)) · trigger $0.1296
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $0.0880 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.1037
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.23 % | 2.4 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.28 x | 12.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 320 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 142.0 x | 6.4 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | -6.2 % | 4.4 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.5 yrs | 5.7 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $86.7M
- Fully diluted
- $110.8M
- 24h volume
- $1.1M
- Circulating
- 783,165,161 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $3.56 · 2024-04-22 (-97.0%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $50.2K
- Revenue 30d
- $50.2K
- Fees 1y
- $993.5K
- Mayer multiple
- 0.979 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.406
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-04-23 (912 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- safe
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources