Stader SD
SD cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 55 mixed
80.9% below its 365-day high of $0.6121 (2025-10-28), +27.4% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +27.4% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 1r 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.0920 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 5 (max 11)
- Current low
- $0.0920 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 4
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dr 1g 2Ur 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.1145 · 2026-10-04
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.1099 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1223
- Cycle-low confidence
- 78%
- Confirmed lows
- 21
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr 1r 3g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1186 · 2026-10-12 (daily)
- Position
- 9 of median 5 (max 16)
- Current low
- $0.1099 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1223
- Cycle-low confidence
- 92% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 146
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.092 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.1145 (Oct 2026), week 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1099 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1223. Cycle-low confidence 78%.
- Daily: bar is a green outside bar (3). Last confirmed swing low 0.1186 (2026-10-12), day 9 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1099 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1223. Cycle-low confidence 92%.
- Red List: 81% below the 2025-10-28 high; +27% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 95% decline over 20 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +27% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-10-18.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.91 (cheap); -92% from the all-time high.
Has Stader bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the SD snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0920 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1145 from 2026-10-04. A newer candidate at $0.1099 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1223, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1186 from 2026-10-12. A newer candidate at $0.1099 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1223, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Stader below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 80.9% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.6121 from 2025-10-28. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.6% relative to its all-time high of $30.17 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.83 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $0.0920 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -95.0% over 20 months
- Above trough
- +27.4%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $0.1706
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.1145 confirmed 2026-10-18 · trigger $0.1410
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.68 % | 13.9 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.64 x | 10.2 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 1361 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 1.6 x | 20.0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 0.04 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 0.1 % | 5.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.2 yrs | 4.9 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $8.9M
- Fully diluted
- $14.6M
- 24h volume
- $416.1K
- Circulating
- 73,096,556 of 150,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $30.17 · 2022-03-15 (-99.6%)
- TVL
- $231.9M (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $446.6K
- Revenue 30d
- $26.9K
- Fees 1y
- $7.7M
- Mayer multiple
- 0.913 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.353
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-07-30 (814 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- stader
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources