USD1 USD1
USD1 cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List held Falling bearish lean excluded from lists
0.3% below its 365-day high of $1.00 (2025-12-24), +1.3% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-20. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Ug 1r 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.9858 · 2026-05-31
- Position
- 5 of median 8 (max 8)
- Current low
- $0.9984 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $1.00
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 1r 2Ug 2Dr 1g 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.9984 · 2026-08-02
- Position
- 12 of median 3.5 (max 9)
- Current low
- $0.9984 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.9998
- Cycle-low confidence
- 16%
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Daily
- Last bars
- 2D 1 3r 1g 1
- Confirmed low
- $0.9988 · 2026-10-11 (daily)
- Position
- 10 of median 5.0 (max 16)
- Current low
- $0.9984 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.9992
- Cycle-low confidence
- 54%
- Confirmed lows
- 73
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.9858 (May 2026), month 5 of a cycle that has typically run 8. Current low 0.9984 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 1.00.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.9984 (Aug 2026), week 12 of a cycle that has typically run 3.5. Current low 0.9984 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.9998. Cycle-low confidence 16%.
- Daily: bar is a doji inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.9988 (2026-10-11), day 10 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.9984 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.9992. Cycle-low confidence 54%.
- Amber List: 0% below the 2025-12-24 high; +1% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.00 (cheap); -0% from the all-time high.
Has USD1 bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the USD1 snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.9858 from 2026-05-31. A newer candidate at $0.9984 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $1.00, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.9984 from 2026-08-02. A newer candidate at $0.9984 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.9998, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.9988 from 2026-10-11. A newer candidate at $0.9984 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.9992, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is USD1 below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 0.3% below its rolling 365-day high of $1.00 from 2025-12-24. Separately, CoinGecko reports -4.7% relative to its all-time high of $1.05 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-10-08. 14 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List
Fundamentals
Not scored: pegged / wrapped / staking derivative — price action belongs to the underlying
- Market cap
- $4.43B
- Fully diluted
- $4.43B
- 24h volume
- $367.8M
- Circulating
- 4,427,501,461
- All-time high
- $1.05 · 2026-07-09 (-4.7%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.999 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.5
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-08-21 (427 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- usd1-wlfi check
Continue your cycle research
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