Tether USDT
USDT cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List held mixed excluded from lists
1.2% below its 365-day high of $1.01 (2025-11-28), +1.9% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 1r 1g 3g 2Ur 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.9915 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.0 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.9983 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $1.00
- Cycle-low confidence
- 8%
- Confirmed lows
- 15
Weekly
- Last bars
- 3r 1g 3r 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.9915 · 2026-08-23
- Position
- 9 of median 4 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.9983 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.9991
- Cycle-low confidence
- 31% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 66
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dg 2Ug 3g 2Dg 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.9983 · 2026-10-17 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 4.0 (max 19)
- Current low
- $0.9985 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.9990
- Cycle-low confidence
- 26%
- Confirmed lows
- 375
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.9915 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Current low 0.9983 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 1.00. Cycle-low confidence 8%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.9915 (Aug 2026), week 9 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.9983 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.9991. Cycle-low confidence 31%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.9983 (2026-10-17), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.9985 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.999. Cycle-low confidence 26%.
- Red List: 1% below the 2025-11-28 high; +2% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.00 (cheap); -0% vs the 200-week average; -1% from the all-time high.
Has Tether bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the USDT snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.9915 from 2026-08-31. A newer candidate at $0.9983 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $1.00, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.9915 from 2026-08-23. A newer candidate at $0.9983 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.9991, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.9983 from 2026-10-17. A newer candidate at $0.9985 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.9990, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Tether below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 1.2% below its rolling 365-day high of $1.01 from 2025-11-28. Separately, CoinGecko reports -24.3% relative to its all-time high of $1.32 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-24. 28 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List → Red List
- Watch → Amber List
- Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed → Watch
- Watch → Unmatched; coverage or recovery unconfirmed
- First observed: Watch
Fundamentals
Not scored: pegged / wrapped / staking derivative — price action belongs to the underlying
- Market cap
- $184.06B
- Fully diluted
- $189.53B
- 24h volume
- $28.97B
- Circulating
- 184,086,263,958
- All-time high
- $1.32 · 2018-07-23 (-24.3%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.999 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -0.1%
- Pi cycle
- 0.5
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-05-04 (1997 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- tether
Continue your cycle research
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