Wormhole W
W cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 55 bullish lean
82.6% below its 365-day high of $0.0779 (2025-10-27), +72.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +72.7% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.00783 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median ? (max ?)
- Current low
- $0.00783 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 1
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Ug 3r 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.00866 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 16)
- Current low
- $0.00783 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 63% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0137 · 2026-10-07 (daily)
- Position
- 14 of median 5 (max 17)
- Current low
- $0.0125 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0139
- Cycle-low confidence
- 94% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 86
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.00783 (Jul 2026).
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.00866 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 63%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.01367 (2026-10-07), day 14 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.01252 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.01392. Cycle-low confidence 94%.
- Red List: 83% below the 2025-10-27 high; +73% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 95% decline over 9 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +73% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.20 (neutral); -90% from the all-time high.
Has Wormhole bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the W snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00783 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00866 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0137 from 2026-10-07. A newer candidate at $0.0125 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0139, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Wormhole below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 82.6% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.0779 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.2% relative to its all-time high of $1.66 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.1467 · Oct 2025
- Trough
- $0.00783 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -94.7% over 9 months
- Above trough
- +72.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $0.0108
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (3 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.00866 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.0118
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 9.25 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.52 x | 11.1 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 309 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 417.8 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 0.06 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 16.4 % | 6.6 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.3 yrs | 2.3 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $92.9M
- Fully diluted
- $141.0M
- 24h volume
- $8.6M
- Circulating
- 6,587,480,357 of 10,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $1.66 · 2024-04-03 (-99.2%)
- TVL
- $1.61B (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $18.3K
- Revenue 30d
- $0
- Fees 1y
- $379.1K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.197 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.271
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-07-02 (477 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- wormhole
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources