My Neighbor Alice ALICE
ALICE cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 50 mixed
62.0% below its 365-day high of $0.3840 (2025-11-08), +56.8% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
A crash of 7.0 daily-vol units over 20 days, 62% below its rolling 365-day high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +56.8% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 3r 1r 2Ug 1g 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.0930 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 4.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.0930 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 28% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 1r 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1230 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 17)
- Current low
- $0.1339 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1744
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 43
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1566 · 2026-10-08 (daily)
- Position
- 13 of median 5 (max 21)
- Current low
- $0.1339 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1473
- Cycle-low confidence
- 82% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 300
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.093 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 28%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.123 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1339 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1744. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1566 (2026-10-08), day 13 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1339 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1473. Cycle-low confidence 82%.
- Amber List: 62% below the 2025-11-08 high; +57% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 97% decline over 24 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (4 bars)), now +57% above the trough; pullback #4 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.09 (neutral); -82% vs the 200-week average; -98% from the all-time high.
Has My Neighbor Alice bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ALICE snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0930 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1230 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.1339 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1744, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1566 from 2026-10-08. A newer candidate at $0.1339 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1473, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is My Neighbor Alice below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 62.0% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.3840 from 2025-11-08. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.6% relative to its all-time high of $40.93 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $2.85 · Jun 2024
- Trough
- $0.0930 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -96.7% over 24 months
- Above trough
- +56.8%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (4 bars)) · trigger $0.2020
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- $0.0970 · Feb 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #4 low $0.1230 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.1426
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 188.34 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 960 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.7 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $17.2M
- Fully diluted
- $17.2M
- 24h volume
- $32.5M
- Circulating
- 99,600,916 of 100,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $40.93 · 2021-03-15 (-99.6%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 1.094 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -81.9%
- Pi cycle
- 0.466
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-02-24 (1701 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- my-neighbor-alice
Continue your cycle research
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