Illuvium ILV
ILV cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
75.4% below its 365-day high of $13.85 (2025-11-08), +26.8% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
75% below its rolling 365-day high, 347 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +26.8% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $2.69 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 5 (max 9)
- Current low
- $2.69 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 47% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $2.69 · 2026-08-02
- Position
- 12 of median 5 (max 18)
- Current low
- $3.15 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $3.96
- Cycle-low confidence
- 56% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 34
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $3.15 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5 (max 22)
- Current low
- $3.15 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 51%
- Confirmed lows
- 250
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 2.69 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 47%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 2.69 (Aug 2026), week 12 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 3.15 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 3.96. Cycle-low confidence 56%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 3.15 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 51%.
- Amber List: 75% below the 2025-11-08 high; +27% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 98% decline over 28 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +27% above the trough; a weekly pullback is forming at 3.15; it confirms above 3.96.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.94 (cheap); -91% vs the 200-week average; -98% from the all-time high.
Has Illuvium bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ILV snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $2.69 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $2.69 from 2026-08-02. A newer candidate at $3.15 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $3.96, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $3.15 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Illuvium below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 75.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $13.85 from 2025-11-08. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.8% relative to its all-time high of $1,911 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $162.77 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $2.69 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -98.3% over 28 months
- Above trough
- +26.8%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $3.39
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $3.20 · Feb 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- forming at $3.15 · confirms above $3.96
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 13.17 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.16 x | 13.8 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 656 # | 0 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 834.7 x | 0 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 20.0 % | 7.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.0 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $33.6M
- Fully diluted
- $38.9M
- 24h volume
- $4.4M
- Circulating
- 8,286,086
- All-time high
- $1,911 · 2021-11-30 (-99.8%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $3.3K
- Revenue 30d
- $3.3K
- Fees 1y
- $129.3K
- Mayer multiple
- 0.939 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -91.3%
- Pi cycle
- 0.37
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-10-13 (1470 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- illuvium
Continue your cycle research
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