Orchid Protocol OXT
OXT cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 40 mixed
76.9% below its 365-day high of $0.0427 (2025-10-26), +199.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
77% below its rolling 365-day high, 360 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +199.1% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ug 1r 1g 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0033 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 8 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.0033 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 8
Weekly
- Last bars
- 1g 3g 2Ur 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.00893 · 2026-10-04
- Position
- 3 of median 4 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.00891 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0109
- Cycle-low confidence
- 64% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 60
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ur 2Dg 1g 2Dr 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.00943 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 1 of median 5 (max 31)
- Current low
- $0.00919 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0104
- Cycle-low confidence
- 59% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 418
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0033 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 8. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.00893 (Oct 2026), week 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.00891 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.01087. Cycle-low confidence 64%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.00943 (2026-10-20), day 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.00919 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.01045. Cycle-low confidence 59%.
- Amber List: 77% below the 2025-10-26 high; +199% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 98% decline over 27 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +199% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-10-11.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.06 (neutral); -84% vs the 200-week average; -99% from the all-time high.
Has Orchid Protocol bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the OXT snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0033 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00893 from 2026-10-04. A newer candidate at $0.00891 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0109, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00943 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $0.00919 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0104, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Orchid Protocol below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 76.9% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.0427 from 2025-10-26. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.0% relative to its all-time high of $1.03 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.1780 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $0.0033 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -98.1% over 27 months
- Above trough
- +199.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0096
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $0.00893 confirmed 2026-10-11 · trigger $0.0130
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 11.11 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 1288 # | 0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $10.0M
- Fully diluted
- $10.0M
- 24h volume
- $1.1M
- Circulating
- 997,214,634
- All-time high
- $1.03 · 2021-04-05 (-99.0%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.057 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -84.4%
- Pi cycle
- 0.319
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2243 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- orchid-protocol
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources