Cosmos Hub ATOM
ATOM cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
47.1% below its 365-day high of $3.29 (2025-10-27), +43.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules on 2026-10-18. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +43.6% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $1.21 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 4.5 (max 10)
- Current low
- $1.21 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 22%
- Confirmed lows
- 15
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dr 2Ug 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $1.61 · 2026-10-04
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 15)
- Current low
- $1.62 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $1.93
- Cycle-low confidence
- 40% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 57
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $1.62 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 20)
- Current low
- $1.62 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 16%
- Confirmed lows
- 429
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 1.21 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 22%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.61 (Oct 2026), week 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 1.62 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 1.93. Cycle-low confidence 40%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.62 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 16%.
- Watch: 47% below the 2025-10-27 high; +44% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 92% decline over 29 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +44% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-10-11.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.02 (neutral); -72% vs the 200-week average; -96% from the all-time high.
Has Cosmos Hub bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ATOM snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.21 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.61 from 2026-10-04. A newer candidate at $1.62 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $1.93, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $1.62 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Cosmos Hub below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 47.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $3.29 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -96.0% relative to its all-time high of $43.84 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $14.51 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $1.21 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -91.7% over 29 months
- Above trough
- +43.6%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $1.72
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $1.61 · Mar 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $1.61 confirmed 2026-10-11 · trigger $1.90
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.02 % | 11.7 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 82 # | 6 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 36199.6 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 6602.79 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 21.6 % | 7.2 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $912.5M
- Fully diluted
- $912.5M
- 24h volume
- $36.7M
- Circulating
- 534,070,962
- All-time high
- $43.84 · 2021-09-19 (-96.0%)
- TVL
- $138.2K (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $2.1K
- Revenue 30d
- $0
- Fees 1y
- $35.0K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.017 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -71.6%
- Pi cycle
- 0.414
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2243 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- cosmos
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources