Kusama KSM
KSM cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
77.8% below its 365-day high of $19.36 (2025-11-08), +53.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
78% below its rolling 365-day high, 347 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +53.7% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $2.80 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 4.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $2.80 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 1g 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $3.60 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $4.06 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $5.25
- Cycle-low confidence
- 50% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 41
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $4.06 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 19)
- Current low
- $4.06 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25%
- Confirmed lows
- 299
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 2.80 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 3.60 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 4.06 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 5.25. Cycle-low confidence 50%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 4.06 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Amber List: 78% below the 2025-11-08 high; +54% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 96% decline over 32 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +54% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-10-04 (trigger 5.02).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.07 (neutral); -79% vs the 200-week average; -94% from the all-time high.
Has Kusama bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the KSM snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $2.80 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $3.60 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $4.06 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $5.25, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $4.06 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Kusama below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 77.8% below its rolling 365-day high of $19.36 from 2025-11-08. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.3% relative to its all-time high of $621.71 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $65.73 · Dec 2023
- Trough
- $2.80 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -95.7% over 32 months
- Above trough
- +53.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $4.06
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $3.75 · Feb 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $3.60 confirmed 2026-10-04 · trigger $5.02
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 5.52 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 297 # | 3 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.4 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $98.6M
- Fully diluted
- $98.6M
- 24h volume
- $5.4M
- Circulating
- 18,929,767
- All-time high
- $621.71 · 2021-05-17 (-99.3%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.069 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -78.8%
- Pi cycle
- 0.366
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-06-02 (1603 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- kusama
Continue your cycle research
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