Polkadot DOT
DOT cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 70 mixed
69.8% below its 365-day high of $3.53 (2025-11-08), +47.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-18. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +47.1% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.7238 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 4.5 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.7238 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 41%
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 3g 1r 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.9340 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 14)
- Current low
- $1.01 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $1.30
- Cycle-low confidence
- 45% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 48
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ur 2Ur 2Dr 3r 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $1.05 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 21)
- Current low
- $1.05 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $1.09
- Cycle-low confidence
- 24%
- Confirmed lows
- 370
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.7238 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 41%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.934 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 1.01 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 1.30. Cycle-low confidence 45%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 1.05 (2026-10-18), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 1.05 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 1.09. Cycle-low confidence 24%.
- Amber List: 70% below the 2025-11-08 high; +47% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 94% decline over 29 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +47% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 1.17).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.02 (neutral); -76% vs the 200-week average; -98% from the all-time high.
Has Polkadot bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the DOT snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.7238 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.9340 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $1.01 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $1.30, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $1.05 from 2026-10-18. A newer candidate at $1.05 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $1.09, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Polkadot below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 69.8% below its rolling 365-day high of $3.53 from 2025-11-08. Separately, CoinGecko reports -98.1% relative to its all-time high of $54.98 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $11.89 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $0.7238 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -93.9% over 29 months
- Above trough
- +47.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $1.03
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (3 bars))
- False bottom
- $3.02 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.9340 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $1.17
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 6.76 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 54 # | 9 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.3 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $2.01B
- Fully diluted
- $2.01B
- 24h volume
- $136.1M
- Circulating
- 1,705,704,873 of 2,100,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $54.98 · 2021-11-04 (-98.1%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 1.022 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -76.2%
- Pi cycle
- 0.351
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-06-16 (1957 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- polkadot
Continue your cycle research
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