BNB BNB
BNB cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 42.3 mixed
38.2% below its 365-day high of $1,182 (2025-10-27), +36.0% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-18. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +36.0% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $536.71 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 3 (max 3)
- Current low
- $536.71 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dg 3r 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $674.41 · 2026-09-06
- Position
- 7 of median 4.5 (max 10)
- Current low
- $704.95 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $757.25
- Cycle-low confidence
- 54% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $724.69 · 2026-10-22 (daily)
- Position
- 2 of median 4 (max 13)
- Current low
- $724.69 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 20%
- Confirmed lows
- 72
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 536.71 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 3.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 674.41 (Sep 2026), week 7 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Current low 704.95 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 757.25. Cycle-low confidence 54%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 724.69 (2026-10-22), day 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 20%.
- Amber List: 38% below the 2025-10-27 high; +36% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 55% decline over 9 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +36% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.12 (neutral); -36% from the all-time high.
Has BNB bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the BNB snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $536.71 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $674.41 from 2026-09-06. A newer candidate at $704.95 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $757.25, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $724.69 from 2026-10-22. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is BNB below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 38.2% below its rolling 365-day high of $1,182 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -46.7% relative to its all-time high of $1,370 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1,182 · Oct 2025
- Trough
- $536.71 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -54.6% over 9 months
- Above trough
- +36.0%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $610.31
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (4 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $674.41 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $780.71
| decline | 12.3 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 0.66 % | 0.5 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 4 # | 15 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 558.7 x | 0 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | -27.8 % | 2.2 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.0 yrs | 1.4 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $104.31B
- Fully diluted
- $104.30B
- 24h volume
- $690.7M
- Circulating
- 133,159,162 of 200,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $1,370 · 2025-10-13 (-46.7%)
- TVL
- $0 (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $15.3M
- Revenue 30d
- $1.5M
- Fees 1y
- $171.8M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.122 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.479
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-10-22 (368 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- binancecoin
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources