Solana SOL
SOL cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 49.8 mixed
50.7% below its 365-day high of $205.32 (2025-10-27), +68.4% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-18. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +68.4% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ur 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $70.51 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $60.11 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 49%
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1r
- Confirmed low
- $95.71 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $100.32 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $113.26
- Cycle-low confidence
- 52% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 47
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $100.32 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $101.02 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $103.00
- Cycle-low confidence
- 21%
- Confirmed lows
- 345
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 70.51 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Cycle-low confidence 49%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 95.71 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 100.32 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 113.26. Cycle-low confidence 52%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 100.32 (2026-10-18), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 101.02 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 103.00. Cycle-low confidence 21%.
- Red List: 51% below the 2025-10-27 high; +68% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 80% decline over 17 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +68% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.15 (neutral); -10% vs the 200-week average; -61% from the all-time high.
Has Solana bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the SOL snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $70.51 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $95.71 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $100.32 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $113.26, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $100.32 from 2026-10-18. A newer candidate at $101.02 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $103.00, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Solana below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 50.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $205.32 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -65.5% relative to its all-time high of $293.31 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $295.00 · Jan 2025
- Trough
- $60.11 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -79.6% over 17 months
- Above trough
- +68.4%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $82.98
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (4 bars))
- False bottom
- $126.03 · Jun 2025 (3 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $95.71 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $114.59
| decline | 24.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 2.18 % | 5.6 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.08 x | 14.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 7 # | 15 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 209.6 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 11.78 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 19.0 % | 6.9 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.3 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $70.63B
- Fully diluted
- $76.27B
- 24h volume
- $1.54B
- Circulating
- 588,145,487
- All-time high
- $293.31 · 2025-01-19 (-65.5%)
- TVL
- $5.99B (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $27.7M
- Revenue 30d
- $3.4M
- Fees 1y
- $238.3M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.147 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -10.3%
- Pi cycle
- 0.479
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-06-17 (1956 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- solana
Continue your cycle research
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