Ethereum ETH
ETH cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List mixed
44.4% below its 365-day high of $4,254 (2025-10-27), +57.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Amber List.
A crash of 7.2 daily-vol units over 20 days, 44% below its rolling 365-day high.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $1,505 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 8 (max 14)
- Current low
- $2,313 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $2,777
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34%
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 2Dr 2Dr 1r
- Confirmed low
- $2,357 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4 (max 22)
- Current low
- $2,313 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $2,577
- Cycle-low confidence
- 66% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 60
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 1r
- Confirmed low
- $2,370 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 5 (max 20)
- Current low
- $2,349 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $2,414
- Cycle-low confidence
- 46%
- Confirmed lows
- 416
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 1,505 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 8. Current low 2,313 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 2,777. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 2,357 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 2,313 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 2,577. Cycle-low confidence 66%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 2,370 (2026-10-20), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 2,349 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 2,414. Cycle-low confidence 46%.
- Amber List: 44% below the 2025-10-27 high; +57% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.10 (neutral); -7% vs the 200-week average; -51% from the all-time high.
Has Ethereum bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ETH snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $1,505 from 2026-06-30. A newer candidate at $2,313 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $2,777, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $2,357 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $2,313 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $2,577, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $2,370 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $2,349 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $2,414, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Ethereum below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 44.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $4,254 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -52.2% relative to its all-time high of $4,946 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering → Amber List
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering
- Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.51 % | 3.4 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 2 # | 15 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 1521.6 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 6.53 x | 5.8 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 48.9 % | 9.9 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $328.48B
- Fully diluted
- $328.48B
- 24h volume
- $4.96B
- Circulating
- 122,101,617
- All-time high
- $4,946 · 2025-08-24 (-52.2%)
- TVL
- $50.32B (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $17.7M
- Revenue 30d
- $6.4M
- Fees 1y
- $178.4M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.097 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -7.2%
- Pi cycle
- 0.48
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2246 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- ethereum check
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources