Bitcoin BTC
BTC cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 58.1 mixed
30.8% below its 365-day high of $116,410 (2025-10-27), +39.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules on 2026-10-18. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +39.6% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $57,718 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 7.5 (max 11)
- Current low
- $57,718 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 21%
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 2Dr 2Dr 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $79,676 · 2026-10-18
- Position
- 1 of median 4 (max 14)
- Current low
- $79,676 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 31% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 62
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $81,081 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 4 (max 22)
- Current low
- $80,347 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $81,106
- Cycle-low confidence
- 54%
- Confirmed lows
- 410
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 57,718 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 7.5. Cycle-low confidence 21%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 79,676 (Oct 2026), week 1 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 31%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 81,081 (2026-10-20), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 80,347 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 81,106. Cycle-low confidence 54%.
- Watch: 31% below the 2025-10-27 high; +40% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 54% decline over 9 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +40% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-10-24.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.11 (neutral); +20% vs the 200-week average; -35% from the all-time high; 30 months past the halving (post-top decline).
Has Bitcoin bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the BTC snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $57,718 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $79,676 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $81,081 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $80,347 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $81,106, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Bitcoin below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 30.8% below its rolling 365-day high of $116,410 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -36.1% relative to its all-time high of $126,080 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $126,296 · Oct 2025
- Trough
- $57,718 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -54.3% over 9 months
- Above trough
- +39.6%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $66,924
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $60,001 · Feb 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $79,676 confirmed 2026-10-24 · trigger $84,262
| decline | 12.1 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 6.0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 0.86 % | 1.2 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 1 # | 15 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 19703.6 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 383.97 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 7.4 % | 5.7 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $1.70T
- Fully diluted
- $1.70T
- 24h volume
- $14.67B
- Circulating
- 20,093,006 of 21,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $126,080 · 2025-10-06 (-36.1%)
- TVL
- $4.43B (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $7.1M
- Revenue 30d
- $0
- Fees 1y
- $74.3M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.106 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- +20.0%
- Pi cycle
- 0.485
- Halving clock
- 30.2 mo since · post-top decline
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2246 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- bitcoin
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources · Bitcoin cycle indicators explained