Crypto cycle research

Bitcoin cycle indicators: Mayer, 200-week MA and Pi Cycle

Bitcoin cycle indicators answer different questions. Moving-average ratios measure price relative to a trend; a halving clock measures elapsed time; a swing-low rule tests whether price has confirmed a reversal structure.

Published by Crypto Cycle Tracker. Calculation methodology and data coverage.

Mayer Multiple: price divided by the 200-day average

The tracker divides the latest Coinbase daily close by the simple average of the latest 200 daily closes. A value of 1 means price equals that average; 0.8 means it is 20% below it. The site's zone labels are fixed reference thresholds, not estimates of fair value or instructions to buy.

Bitcoin's 200-week moving average

This is the mean of the latest 200 ISO-week closes available in the candle series. The displayed percentage compares the latest price with that mean. When the current week is forming, its latest close is provisional. A move below the average does not by itself confirm a bottom, and the gauge is unavailable without enough weekly history.

Current cycle readings

2026-09-21 UTC · 15 coins shown

Market regime: Advancing. Snapshot generated 2026-09-21T12:17:56+00:00; blue-chip overlay 2026-09-21T13:49:00+00:00. Forming bars can change.

Bitcoin indicators · 2026-09-21 UTC

Mayer Multiple
1.21
200-week average
$65,840
Pi Cycle ratio
0.43
Days since halving
885
Bitcoin cycle chart and full analysis →

On smaller screens, scroll the table horizontally to compare every column.

CoinMonthly last confirmed lowWeekly last confirmed lowDaily last confirmed low
BTCBitcoin $57,718 · 2026-07-31$74,888 · 2026-09-20$80,085 · 2026-09-20
ETHEthereum $1,505 · 2026-06-30$2,357 · 2026-09-20$2,564 · 2026-09-20
BNBBNB $536.71 · 2026-07-31$674.41 · 2026-09-06$745.92 · 2026-09-20
XRPXRP $1.91 · 2025-06-30$1.25 · 2026-09-20$1.37 · 2026-09-20
SOLSolana $70.51 · 2026-08-31$95.71 · 2026-09-20$107.34 · 2026-09-20
ZECZcash $250.00 · 2026-06-30$465.72 · 2026-08-16$1,428 · 2026-09-20
HYPEHyperliquid $51.10 · 2026-08-31$75.11 · 2026-09-20$89.62 · 2026-09-20
DOGEDogecoin $0.0799 · 2026-02-28$0.0783 · 2026-09-20$0.0843 · 2026-09-20
LINKChainlink $7.00 · 2026-06-30$10.61 · 2026-09-20$11.91 · 2026-09-20
ADACardano $0.1381 · 2026-06-30$0.1901 · 2026-09-20$0.2182 · 2026-09-20
XLMStellar $0.1361 · 2026-02-28$0.1724 · 2026-09-20$0.1885 · 2026-09-20
BCHBitcoin Cash $180.15 · 2026-06-30$212.78 · 2026-09-20$243.00 · 2026-09-20
AVAXAvalanche $6.04 · 2026-08-31$7.17 · 2026-09-20$7.17 · 2026-09-16
LTCLitecoin $39.21 · 2026-06-30$50.11 · 2026-09-20$56.49 · 2026-09-20
DOTPolkadot $0.7238 · 2026-08-31$0.9340 · 2026-09-20$1.07 · 2026-09-20

Last confirmed lows are historical observations; a newer candidate may be forming. Open a coin for pending levels, bar status and the chart.

Pi Cycle Top indicator

The displayed ratio is the 111-day simple moving average divided by twice the 350-day simple moving average. The site's top-signal flag is active at a ratio of 1 or higher. That is a threshold condition, not a timestamped crossover alert, and it is not a bottom indicator. It can remain below 1 during both advances and declines.

Bitcoin halving cycle tracker

The clock shows elapsed time since the recorded halving and time to an estimated next date. The next calendar date is an estimate because halvings are tied to block height. Calendar phase labels are context; they do not establish whether current price structure is bullish or bearish.

What to do when indicators disagree

First identify what each measure tests. A low Mayer Multiple can coexist with bearish bars, and a confirmed daily swing low can coexist with a weak monthly trend. Compare all three timeframes on the Bitcoin page and read the market regime's component tally. Do not count correlated moving averages as independent confirmation.

Sources and limitations

The calculations described here follow this site's published methodology: Coinbase Exchange candles, CoinGecko market data, and DefiLlama protocol data. Coverage is limited to the analyzed Coinbase USD universe. Missing fundamentals are not scored as zero. Signals describe observed structure and are not forecasts or investment recommendations.

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