Stellar XLM
XLM cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering Falling full bearish continuity
49.6% below its 365-day high of $0.3379 (2025-10-28), +25.0% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Red List.
A crash of 9.9 daily-vol units over 20 days, 50% below its rolling 365-day high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Since the previous scan.
Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 1r 2Dr 3g 2Ug 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.1524 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 5.5 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.1684 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.2309
- Cycle-low confidence
- 36% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.1724 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 16)
- Current low
- $0.1684 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1870
- Cycle-low confidence
- 70% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 57
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.1715 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.1684 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1738
- Cycle-low confidence
- 51%
- Confirmed lows
- 394
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.1524 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Current low 0.1684 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.2309. Cycle-low confidence 36%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.1724 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1684 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.187. Cycle-low confidence 70%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.1715 (2026-10-18), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1684 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1738. Cycle-low confidence 51%.
- Red List: 50% below the 2025-10-28 high; +25% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.93 (cheap); -10% vs the 200-week average; -77% from the all-time high.
Has Stellar bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the XLM snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1524 from 2026-08-31. A newer candidate at $0.1684 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.2309, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1724 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.1684 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1870, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1715 from 2026-10-18. A newer candidate at $0.1684 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1738, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Stellar below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 49.6% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.3379 from 2025-10-28. Separately, CoinGecko reports -80.6% relative to its all-time high of $0.8756 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.32 % | 2.7 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.43 x | 11.8 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 20 # | 12 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 13189.7 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 31.17 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 8.3 % | 5.8 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $7.56B
- Fully diluted
- $10.78B
- 24h volume
- $99.7M
- Circulating
- 35,057,721,179
- All-time high
- $0.8756 · 2018-01-02 (-80.6%)
- TVL
- $242.6M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $47.1K
- Revenue 30d
- $47.1K
- Fees 1y
- $536.6K
- Mayer multiple
- 0.931 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -10.2%
- Pi cycle
- 0.486
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2246 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- stellar
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources