Chainlink LINK
LINK cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Falling Phoenix · monthly · score 48.7 bearish lean
39.3% below its 365-day high of $19.06 (2025-10-27), +65.3% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-18. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +65.3% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $7.00 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 3.5 (max 15)
- Current low
- $7.00 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 31% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 15
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $10.61 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4 (max 13)
- Current low
- $11.51 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $12.80
- Cycle-low confidence
- 46%
- Confirmed lows
- 68
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $11.82 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 5.0 (max 21)
- Current low
- $11.51 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $11.90
- Cycle-low confidence
- 50%
- Confirmed lows
- 409
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 7.00 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 3.5. Cycle-low confidence 31%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 10.61 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 11.51 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 12.80. Cycle-low confidence 46%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 11.82 (2026-10-20), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 11.51 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 11.90. Cycle-low confidence 50%.
- Red List: 39% below the 2025-10-27 high; +65% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 77% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +65% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.17 (neutral); -10% vs the 200-week average; -78% from the all-time high.
Has Chainlink bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the LINK snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $7.00 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $10.61 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $11.51 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $12.80, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $11.82 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $11.51 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $11.90, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Chainlink below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 39.3% below its rolling 365-day high of $19.06 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -78.0% relative to its all-time high of $52.70 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $30.95 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $7.00 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -77.4% over 18 months
- Above trough
- +65.3%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $9.20
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (10 bars))
- False bottom
- $7.20 · Feb 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $10.61 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $12.69
| decline | 23.7 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 2.36 % | 6.2 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.34 x | 12.5 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 13 # | 12 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $10.55B
- Fully diluted
- $14.10B
- 24h volume
- $248.6M
- Circulating
- 748,099,970 of 1,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $52.70 · 2021-05-09 (-78.0%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.165 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -9.9%
- Pi cycle
- 0.515
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2246 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- chainlink
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources