Ondo ONDO
ONDO cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 50 mixed
42.1% below its 365-day high of $0.7793 (2025-10-27), +123.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules on 2026-10-20. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +123.5% above the Feb 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 1r 1g 2Ur 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.2017 · 2026-02-28
- Position
- 8 of median 5 (max 8)
- Current low
- $0.2017 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 58% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 6
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ur 2Dg 3r 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.3229 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4 (max 17)
- Current low
- $0.4104 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.5322
- Cycle-low confidence
- 51%
- Confirmed lows
- 26
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1g 3g 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.4104 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 15)
- Current low
- $0.4104 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 23%
- Confirmed lows
- 181
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.2017 (Feb 2026), month 8 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 58%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.3229 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 0.4104 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.5322. Cycle-low confidence 51%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.4104 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 23%.
- Watch: 42% below the 2025-10-27 high; +124% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 91% decline over 14 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (3 bars)), now +124% above the trough; pullback #6 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.23 (neutral); -78% from the all-time high.
Has Ondo bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ONDO snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2017 from 2026-02-28. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3229 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.4104 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.5322, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.4104 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Ondo below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 42.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.7793 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -78.9% relative to its all-time high of $2.14 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $2.15 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $0.2017 · Feb 2026
- Decline
- -90.6% over 14 months
- Above trough
- +123.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (3 bars)) · trigger $0.2976
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $0.6630 · Apr 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #6 low $0.3229 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.4431
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 5.4 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 2.05 x | 7.1 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 46 # | 9 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.7 yrs | 6.4 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $2.42B
- Fully diluted
- $4.98B
- 24h volume
- $130.9M
- Circulating
- 4,869,330,647 of 10,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $2.14 · 2024-12-15 (-78.9%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.233 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.537
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-01-22 (1004 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- ondo-finance
Continue your cycle research
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