Ethena ENA
ENA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 40 mixed
62.6% below its 365-day high of $0.5342 (2025-10-27), +186.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
63% below its rolling 365-day high, 359 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +186.1% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0698 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 2 (max 2)
- Current low
- $0.0698 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1346 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.1745 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.2475
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1745 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 26)
- Current low
- $0.1745 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 22%
- Confirmed lows
- 77
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0698 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 2.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1346 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1745 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.2475. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1745 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 22%.
- Watch: 63% below the 2025-10-27 high; +186% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 92% decline over 9 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +186% above the trough; pullback #4 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.61 (neutral); -75% from the all-time high.
Has Ethena bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ENA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0698 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1346 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.1745 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.2475, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1745 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Ethena below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 62.6% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.5342 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -86.9% relative to its all-time high of $1.52 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.8721 · Sep 2025
- Trough
- $0.0698 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -92.0% over 9 months
- Above trough
- +186.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $0.1185
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #4 low $0.1346 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.2319
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 9.8 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.49 x | 11.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 45 # | 9 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.4 yrs | 2.5 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $2.42B
- Fully diluted
- $3.60B
- 24h volume
- $237.7M
- Circulating
- 10,095,312,500 of 15,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $1.52 · 2024-04-11 (-86.9%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.614 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.484
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-06-05 (504 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- ethena
Continue your cycle research
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