DeFi · rank #45

Aave AAVE

$134.45-1.8% 1d+8.4% 7d+47.5% 30d

Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 62.8 mixed

  • Monthly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 57.82 (Jun 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 61%.
  • Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 85.00 (Aug 2026), week 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 23%.
  • Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 128.23 (2026-09-05), day 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 11%.
  • Watch: 58% below the 2025-09-12 high; +132% off the 365-day low.
  • Phoenix: 86% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +132% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-08-23 (trigger 92.80).
  • Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.39 (neutral); -3% vs the 200-week average; -79% from the all-time high.
From the peak to today, log scale
60.94152.74382.852024-112025-102026-09peak 400.18low 57.82 (86%)false bottommonthly trigger 99.09

Where it sits in each cycle

a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's high

Monthly 1

Last bars
2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug 1g
Confirmed low
$57.82 · 2026-06-30
Position
3 of median 4.5 (max 14)
Current low
$57.82 · confirmed
Cycle-low odds
61% · in band
Confirmed lows
13

Weekly 1

Last bars
2Dr 2Ug 1r 1g 1r
Confirmed low
$85.00 · 2026-08-16
Position
4 of median 5 (max 12)
Current low
$85.00 · confirmed
Cycle-low odds
23% · in band
Confirmed lows
54

Daily 1

Last bars
2Ug 2Ur 2Dg 2Ug 1r
Confirmed low
$128.23 · 2026-09-05 (daily)
Position
2 of median 5.0 (max 21)
Current low
$128.23 · confirmed
Cycle-low odds
11%
Confirmed lows
381

Phoenix

stopped falling, by the rules
Peak
$400.18 · Dec 2024
Trough
$57.82 · Jun 2026
Decline
-85.6% over 18 months
Above trough
+132.5%
Monthly
confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $99.09
Weekly
confirmed (late (3 bars))
False bottom
$113.93 · Apr 2025 (4 higher highs, then undercut)
Entry
pullback #1 low $85.00 confirmed 2026-08-23 · trigger $92.80
Score 62.8
decline27.8
confirmation25
earliness0
stale0
false bottom10
bluechip0

Fundamentals

CoinGecko + DefiLlama, pulled 2026-09-07 .xlsx
Health51 / 100 · Sound
Liquidity (24h volume / market cap)
can you get out
11.13 %15.0 / 15
Supply overhang (FDV / market cap)
unlocked supply waiting to sell
1.04 x14.7 / 15
Size (market-cap rank)
survivorship
45 #9 / 15
Usage (price / annualized fees)
fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama)
1821.5 x0 / 20
TVL backing (market cap / TVL)
capital parked in it (DefiLlama)
18.53 x0.0 / 15
Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d)
is usage growing into the recovery
-23.1 %2.7 / 10
Age on Coinbase
survived a cycle
5.7 yrs10.0 / 10

7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.

Market cap
$2.07B
Fully diluted
$2.15B
24h volume
$230.7M
Circulating
15,427,293 of 16,000,000 max
All-time high
$661.69 · 2021-05-18 (-79.7%)
TVL
$111.8M (protocol)
Fees 30d
$93.5K
Revenue 30d
$84.6K
Fees 1y
$1.6M
Mayer multiple
1.387 · neutral
vs 200-week avg
-2.9%
Pi cycle
0.34
On Coinbase since
2020-12-15 (2093 bars)
CoinGecko id
aave