Aave AAVE
AAVE cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 47.8 bullish lean
37.5% below its 365-day high of $248.94 (2025-10-27), +168.9% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
A crash of 5.8 daily-vol units over 20 days, 38% below its rolling 365-day high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +168.9% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $57.82 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 4.5 (max 14)
- Current low
- $57.82 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 61% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Ur 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $113.15 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 12)
- Current low
- $145.76 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $172.83
- Cycle-low confidence
- 39% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 55
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 1r 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $145.76 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 21)
- Current low
- $145.76 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 23%
- Confirmed lows
- 391
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 57.82 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 61%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 113.15 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 145.76 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 172.83. Cycle-low confidence 39%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 145.76 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 23%.
- Watch: 38% below the 2025-10-27 high; +169% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 86% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +169% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.47 (neutral); +10% vs the 200-week average; -75% from the all-time high.
Has Aave bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the AAVE snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $57.82 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $113.15 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $145.76 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $172.83, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $145.76 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Aave below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 37.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $248.94 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -76.5% relative to its all-time high of $661.69 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $400.18 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $57.82 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -85.6% over 18 months
- Above trough
- +168.9%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $99.09
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (3 bars))
- False bottom
- $113.93 · Apr 2025 (4 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $113.15 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $147.00
| decline | 27.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 11.24 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.04 x | 14.7 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 41 # | 9 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 1436.6 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 26.19 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 20.0 % | 7.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.8 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $2.82B
- Fully diluted
- $2.92B
- 24h volume
- $317.1M
- Circulating
- 15,435,323 of 16,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $661.69 · 2021-05-18 (-76.5%)
- TVL
- $107.7M (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $161.3K
- Revenue 30d
- $143.4K
- Fees 1y
- $1.7M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.467 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- +10.0%
- Pi cycle
- 0.49
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-12-15 (2137 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- aave
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources