
DeFi · rank #45
Aave AAVE
$134.45-1.8% 1d+8.4% 7d+47.5% 30d
Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 62.8 mixed
- Monthly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 57.82 (Jun 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 61%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 85.00 (Aug 2026), week 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 23%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 128.23 (2026-09-05), day 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 11%.
- Watch: 58% below the 2025-09-12 high; +132% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 86% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +132% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-08-23 (trigger 92.80).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.39 (neutral); -3% vs the 200-week average; -79% from the all-time high.
From the peak to today, log scale
Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $57.82 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 3 of median 4.5 (max 14)
- Current low
- $57.82 · confirmed
- Cycle-low odds
- 61% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Ug 1r 1g 1r
- Confirmed low
- $85.00 · 2026-08-16
- Position
- 4 of median 5 (max 12)
- Current low
- $85.00 · confirmed
- Cycle-low odds
- 23% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 54
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ur 2Dg 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $128.23 · 2026-09-05 (daily)
- Position
- 2 of median 5.0 (max 21)
- Current low
- $128.23 · confirmed
- Cycle-low odds
- 11%
- Confirmed lows
- 381
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $400.18 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $57.82 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -85.6% over 18 months
- Above trough
- +132.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $99.09
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (3 bars))
- False bottom
- $113.93 · Apr 2025 (4 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $85.00 confirmed 2026-08-23 · trigger $92.80
Score 62.8
| decline | 27.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
CoinGecko + DefiLlama, pulled 2026-09-07 .xlsx
Health51 / 100 · Sound
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 11.13 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.04 x | 14.7 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 45 # | 9 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 1821.5 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 18.53 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | -23.1 % | 2.7 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.7 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $2.07B
- Fully diluted
- $2.15B
- 24h volume
- $230.7M
- Circulating
- 15,427,293 of 16,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $661.69 · 2021-05-18 (-79.7%)
- TVL
- $111.8M (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $93.5K
- Revenue 30d
- $84.6K
- Fees 1y
- $1.6M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.387 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -2.9%
- Pi cycle
- 0.34
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-12-15 (2093 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- aave