Avalanche AVAX
AVAX cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Falling Phoenix · monthly · score 55 bearish lean
57.9% below its 365-day high of $21.10 (2025-10-27), +56.4% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Amber List.
A crash of 7.0 daily-vol units over 20 days, 58% below its rolling 365-day high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +56.4% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $6.04 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.5 (max 11)
- Current low
- $5.68 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 53% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ur 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $7.17 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 15)
- Current low
- $8.80 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $10.05
- Cycle-low confidence
- 43% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 49
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ur 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $9.37 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $8.80 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $9.08
- Cycle-low confidence
- 53%
- Confirmed lows
- 333
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 6.04 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3.5. Cycle-low confidence 53%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 7.17 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 8.80 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 10.05. Cycle-low confidence 43%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 9.37 (2026-10-20), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 8.80 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 9.08. Cycle-low confidence 53%.
- Amber List: 58% below the 2025-10-27 high; +56% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 91% decline over 27 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (3 bars)), now +56% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.09 (neutral); -58% vs the 200-week average; -93% from the all-time high.
Has Avalanche bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the AVAX snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $6.04 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $7.17 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $8.80 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $10.05, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $9.37 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $8.80 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $9.08, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Avalanche below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 57.9% below its rolling 365-day high of $21.10 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -93.9% relative to its all-time high of $144.96 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $65.38 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $5.68 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -91.3% over 27 months
- Above trough
- +56.4%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (3 bars)) · trigger $9.06
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- $15.62 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $7.17 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $11.48
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 5.98 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.06 x | 14.5 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 26 # | 12 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 849.7 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 8.25 x | 2.9 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 206.6 % | 10.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $4.91B
- Fully diluted
- $5.20B
- 24h volume
- $293.7M
- Circulating
- 443,232,200 of 720,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $144.96 · 2021-11-21 (-93.9%)
- TVL
- $595.1M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $474.6K
- Revenue 30d
- $474.6K
- Fees 1y
- $2.9M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.086 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -57.9%
- Pi cycle
- 0.417
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-09-30 (1851 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- avalanche-2
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources