Litecoin LTC
LTC cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering Falling Phoenix · monthly · score 46.7 bearish lean
50.5% below its 365-day high of $113.69 (2025-11-09), +43.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Red List.
A crash of 9.1 daily-vol units over 20 days, 50% below its rolling 365-day high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +43.5% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $39.21 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 5 (max 12)
- Current low
- $39.21 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 22%
- Confirmed lows
- 12
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $50.11 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 14)
- Current low
- $55.92 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $62.34
- Cycle-low confidence
- 60% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 57
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ur 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $58.22 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 5.0 (max 17)
- Current low
- $55.92 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $57.50
- Cycle-low confidence
- 55%
- Confirmed lows
- 433
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 39.21 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 22%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 50.11 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 55.92 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 62.34. Cycle-low confidence 60%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 58.22 (2026-10-20), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 55.92 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 57.50. Cycle-low confidence 55%.
- Red List: 50% below the 2025-11-09 high; +44% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 73% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +44% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.08 (neutral); -30% vs the 200-week average; -86% from the all-time high.
Has Litecoin bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the LTC snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $39.21 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $50.11 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $55.92 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $62.34, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $58.22 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $55.92 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $57.50, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Litecoin below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 50.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $113.69 from 2025-11-09. Separately, CoinGecko reports -86.3% relative to its all-time high of $410.26 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $147.22 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $39.21 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -73.4% over 18 months
- Above trough
- +43.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $52.22
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $76.21 · Jun 2025 (3 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $50.11 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $59.37
| decline | 21.7 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 5.87 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 24 # | 12 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 28672.9 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 5432.92 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 23.8 % | 7.4 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $5.44B
- Fully diluted
- $5.44B
- 24h volume
- $319.2M
- Circulating
- 77,677,061 of 84,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $410.26 · 2021-05-09 (-86.3%)
- TVL
- $1.0M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $15.6K
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- $143.6K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.08 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -29.6%
- Pi cycle
- 0.447
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2246 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- litecoin
Continue your cycle research
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