Bitcoin Cash BCH
BCH cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 68.5 mixed
59.7% below its 365-day high of $686.80 (2026-01-10), +53.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +53.5% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $180.15 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 8 (max 16)
- Current low
- $180.15 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 39%
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $255.99 · 2026-10-18
- Position
- 1 of median 4 (max 17)
- Current low
- $212.78 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 58% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 62
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ug 2Dr 1g 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $271.74 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 4.0 (max 29)
- Current low
- $271.76 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $288.34
- Cycle-low confidence
- 13%
- Confirmed lows
- 433
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 180.15 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 8. Cycle-low confidence 39%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 255.99 (Oct 2026), week 1 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 58%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 271.74 (2026-10-20), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Current low 271.76 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 288.34. Cycle-low confidence 13%.
- Amber List: 60% below the 2026-01-10 high; +54% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 75% decline over 26 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +54% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-10-24.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.95 (cheap); -21% vs the 200-week average; -82% from the all-time high.
Has Bitcoin Cash bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the BCH snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $180.15 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $255.99 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $271.74 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $271.76 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $288.34, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Bitcoin Cash below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 59.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $686.80 from 2026-01-10. Separately, CoinGecko reports -92.7% relative to its all-time high of $3,786 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $719.43 · Apr 2024
- Trough
- $180.15 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -75.0% over 26 months
- Above trough
- +53.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $304.35
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $443.00 · Oct 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $255.99 confirmed 2026-10-24 · trigger $288.68
| decline | 22.5 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 6.0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 2.22 % | 5.7 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 21 # | 12 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 234213.3 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 1174.52 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 7.6 % | 5.8 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $6.38B
- Fully diluted
- $6.38B
- 24h volume
- $141.3M
- Circulating
- 20,098,069 of 21,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $3,786 · 2017-12-19 (-92.7%)
- TVL
- $5.4M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $2.2K
- Revenue 30d
- $0
- Fees 1y
- $50.9K
- Mayer multiple
- 0.954 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -21.4%
- Pi cycle
- 0.319
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2246 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- bitcoin-cash
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources