Cardano ADA
ADA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 54.8 mixed
70.1% below its 365-day high of $0.6938 (2025-10-27), +50.1% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-24 UTC.
On the Amber List.
70% below its rolling 365-day high, 362 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +50.1% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.1381 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 3 (max 13)
- Current low
- $0.1381 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 46% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 12
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 3r 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.1901 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 14)
- Current low
- $0.2061 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.2304
- Cycle-low confidence
- 48% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 52
Daily
- Last bars
- 3g 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.2144 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 4 of median 5.0 (max 21)
- Current low
- $0.2061 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.2183
- Cycle-low confidence
- 49%
- Confirmed lows
- 373
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.1381 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Cycle-low confidence 46%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.1901 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.2061 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.2304. Cycle-low confidence 48%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.2144 (2026-10-20), day 4 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.2061 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.2183. Cycle-low confidence 49%.
- Amber List: 70% below the 2025-10-27 high; +50% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 90% decline over 18 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +50% above the trough; pullback #4 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.98 (cheap); -56% vs the 200-week average; -93% from the all-time high.
Has Cardano bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ADA snapshot records on 2026-10-24 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1381 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1901 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.2061 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.2304, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2144 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $0.2061 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.2183, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Cardano below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 70.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.6938 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -93.3% relative to its all-time high of $3.09 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.33 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $0.1381 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -89.6% over 18 months
- Above trough
- +50.1%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $0.2374
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $0.5101 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #4 low $0.1901 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.2352
| decline | 29.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 5 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 2.61 % | 7.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.2 x | 13.5 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 17 # | 12 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 5234.4 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 144.09 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 220.8 % | 10.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.6 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $9.15B
- Fully diluted
- $10.96B
- 24h volume
- $238.4M
- Circulating
- 37,541,298,085 of 45,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $3.09 · 2021-09-01 (-93.3%)
- TVL
- $63.5M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $143.6K
- Revenue 30d
- $28.7K
- Fees 1y
- $1.0M
- Mayer multiple
- 0.982 · cheap
- vs 200-week avg
- -55.7%
- Pi cycle
- 0.382
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-03-18 (2047 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- cardano
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources