Render RENDER
RENDER cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 55 mixed
37.1% below its 365-day high of $2.94 (2025-11-07), +64.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules on 2026-10-18. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +50.7% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $1.23 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 4.0 (max 6)
- Current low
- $1.23 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 32% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 7
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 3g 3r 1g
- Confirmed low
- $1.28 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 15)
- Current low
- $1.23 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 60% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 22
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $1.72 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 4.5 (max 19)
- Current low
- $1.72 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 42%
- Confirmed lows
- 179
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 1.23 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 32%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.28 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 60%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.72 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 42%.
- Watch: 37% below the 2025-11-07 high; +65% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 91% decline over 29 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +51% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 1.76).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.09 (neutral); -86% from the all-time high.
Has Render bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the RENDER snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.23 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $1.28 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $1.72 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Render below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 37.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $2.94 from 2025-11-07. Separately, CoinGecko reports -86.3% relative to its all-time high of $13.53 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Phoenix monthly
- Watch · Phoenix weekly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $13.65 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $1.23 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -91.0% over 29 months
- Above trough
- +50.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $1.64
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $1.28 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $1.76
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.87 % | 14.6 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.03 x | 14.8 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 79 # | 6 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 173.8 x | 2.9 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 133.4 % | 10.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.7 yrs | 6.2 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $1.02B
- Fully diluted
- $1.04B
- 24h volume
- $49.5M
- Circulating
- 518,776,241 of 644,245,094 max
- All-time high
- $13.53 · 2024-03-17 (-86.3%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $480.3K
- Revenue 30d
- $480.4K
- Fees 1y
- $2.2M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.095 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.465
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-02-15 (980 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- render-token
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources