ALEO ALEO
ALEO cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 62.5 mixed
88.3% below its 365-day high of $0.3520 (2025-11-06), +174.7% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
88% below its rolling 365-day high, 349 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +174.7% above the Sep 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 3g 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0150 · 2026-09-30
- Position
- 1 of median 3 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.0150 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 4
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0150 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 7 (max 22)
- Current low
- $0.0150 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 26% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 12
Daily
- Last bars
- 1r 1g 2Dr 2Dr 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.0318 · 2026-10-12 (daily)
- Position
- 9 of median 7 (max 26)
- Current low
- $0.0410 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0435
- Cycle-low confidence
- 85%
- Confirmed lows
- 96
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.01498 (Sep 2026), month 1 of a cycle that has typically run 3.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.01498 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 7. Cycle-low confidence 26%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.03178 (2026-10-12), day 9 of a cycle that has typically run 7. Current low 0.041 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.0435. Cycle-low confidence 85%.
- Red List: 88% below the 2025-11-06 high; +175% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 100% decline over 24 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +175% above the trough; no weekly pullback yet — the entry is the pullback, never the chase.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.38 (neutral); -99% from the all-time high.
Has ALEO bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ALEO snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0150 from 2026-09-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0150 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0318 from 2026-10-12. A newer candidate at $0.0410 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0435, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is ALEO below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 88.3% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.3520 from 2025-11-06. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.4% relative to its all-time high of $6.72 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List · Phoenix weekly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Red List → Red List · Phoenix weekly
- Red List · Phoenix weekly → Red List
- First observed: Red List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $6.89 · Sep 2024
- Trough
- $0.0150 · Sep 2026
- Decline
- -99.8% over 24 months
- Above trough
- +174.7%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0488
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- awaiting the first weekly pullback
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 7.5 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.81 % | 14.4 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.42 x | 11.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 536 # | 0 / 15 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 22.86 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.1 yrs | 4.5 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
5 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $44.5M
- Fully diluted
- $63.1M
- 24h volume
- $2.1M
- Circulating
- 1,466,578,775 of 5,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $6.72 · 2024-09-27 (-99.4%)
- TVL
- $1.9M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 1.384 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.167
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-09-18 (764 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- aleo
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources