Arbitrum ARB
ARB cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 50 mixed
45.5% below its 365-day high of $0.3517 (2025-10-27), +172.0% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +172.0% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0721 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.0 (max 11)
- Current low
- $0.0704 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 48%
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 1r 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.1277 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 14)
- Current low
- $0.1614 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.2110
- Cycle-low confidence
- 68% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 33
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 2Ur 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1748 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5 (max 21)
- Current low
- $0.1748 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25%
- Confirmed lows
- 236
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.07209 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Cycle-low confidence 48%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.1277 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1614 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.211. Cycle-low confidence 68%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1748 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Watch: 46% below the 2025-10-27 high; +172% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 97% decline over 29 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (2 bars)), now +172% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.60 (neutral); -92% from the all-time high.
Has Arbitrum bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ARB snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0721 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1277 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.1614 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.2110, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1748 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Arbitrum below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 45.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.3517 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -92.0% relative to its all-time high of $2.39 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $2.41 · Jan 2024
- Trough
- $0.0704 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -97.1% over 29 months
- Above trough
- +172.0%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (2 bars)) · trigger $0.1041
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- $0.0857 · Mar 2026 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $0.1277 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.2300
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 10.56 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.47 x | 11.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 68 # | 9 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 160.3 x | 4.4 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 0.94 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 47.5 % | 9.8 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 3.6 yrs | 8.8 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $1.36B
- Fully diluted
- $2.01B
- 24h volume
- $144.1M
- Circulating
- 6,785,574,605 of 10,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $2.39 · 2024-01-12 (-92.0%)
- TVL
- $1.45B (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $699.2K
- Revenue 30d
- $695.8K
- Fees 1y
- $8.0M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.603 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.469
- On Coinbase since
- 2023-03-23 (1309 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- arbitrum
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources