Optimism OP
OP cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 77.0 mixed
72.5% below its 365-day high of $0.4760 (2025-10-27), +62.4% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
72% below its rolling 365-day high, 359 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +62.4% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0806 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 5.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.0806 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34%
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dg 2Ur 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1111 · 2026-10-11
- Position
- 2 of median 4.5 (max 13)
- Current low
- $0.1111 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 35% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 43
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 3g 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.1187 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5 (max 17)
- Current low
- $0.1187 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 28%
- Confirmed lows
- 290
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.08062 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1111 (Oct 2026), week 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 35%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1187 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 28%.
- Amber List: 72% below the 2025-10-27 high; +62% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 98% decline over 29 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +62% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-10-18.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.17 (neutral); -90% vs the 200-week average; -97% from the all-time high.
Has Optimism bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the OP snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0806 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1111 from 2026-10-11. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1187 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Optimism below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 72.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.4760 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -97.3% relative to its all-time high of $4.84 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $4.86 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $0.0806 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -98.3% over 29 months
- Above trough
- +62.4%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.1234
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (4 bars))
- False bottom
- $0.4580 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.1111 confirmed 2026-10-18 · trigger $0.1477
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 12.0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 23.5 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.87 x | 8.5 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 150 # | 6 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 284.9 x | 0 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 29.4 % | 7.9 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.4 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $310.0M
- Fully diluted
- $578.9M
- 24h volume
- $72.8M
- Circulating
- 2,299,624,975 of 4,294,967,296 max
- All-time high
- $4.84 · 2024-03-06 (-97.3%)
- TVL
- $0 (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $89.4K
- Revenue 30d
- $87.9K
- Fees 1y
- $867.7K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.165 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -90.2%
- Pi cycle
- 0.317
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-06-01 (1604 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- optimism
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources