POL (ex-MATIC) POL
POL cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 65 mixed
54.1% below its 365-day high of $0.2070 (2025-10-27), +40.9% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-18. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +40.9% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 1g 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $0.0674 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 4.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.0674 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 5
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ur 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0864 · 2026-09-06
- Position
- 7 of median 8.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.0877 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.1074
- Cycle-low confidence
- 60% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 11
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0877 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 22)
- Current low
- $0.0877 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 24%
- Confirmed lows
- 137
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.0674 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.08642 (Sep 2026), week 7 of a cycle that has typically run 8. Current low 0.08766 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1074. Cycle-low confidence 60%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.08766 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 24%.
- Red List: 54% below the 2025-10-27 high; +41% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 91% decline over 19 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +41% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-20.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.06 (neutral); -87% from the all-time high.
Has POL (ex-MATIC) bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the POL snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0674 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0864 from 2026-09-06. A newer candidate at $0.0877 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1074, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0877 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is POL (ex-MATIC) below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 54.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2070 from 2025-10-27. Separately, CoinGecko reports -92.6% relative to its all-time high of $1.29 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.7675 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $0.0674 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -91.2% over 19 months
- Above trough
- +40.9%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0852
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $0.1637 · Jun 2025 (3 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.0864 confirmed 2026-09-20 · trigger $0.1003
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.03 % | 11.8 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 75 # | 9 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 43.5 x | 17.4 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 1.7 x | 13.8 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | -4.2 % | 4.6 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 2.1 yrs | 4.6 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $1.17B
- Fully diluted
- $1.17B
- 24h volume
- $47.1M
- Circulating
- 10,625,153,881
- All-time high
- $1.29 · 2024-03-13 (-92.6%)
- TVL
- $687.4M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $2.2M
- Revenue 30d
- $2.2M
- Fees 1y
- $30.0M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.063 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.449
- On Coinbase since
- 2024-09-04 (778 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- polygon-ecosystem-token check
Continue your cycle research
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