RWA · rank #445

Centrifuge CFG

CFG cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals

$0.1216+0.5% 1d-11.7% 7d-11.9% 30d

Amber List held Phoenix · weekly · score 34.5 mixed

65.3% below its 365-day high of $0.3502 (2026-05-09), +81.2% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.

From the peak to today, log scale
0.06950.15890.36332025-092026-042026-10peak 0.4678low 0.098 (79%)monthly trigger 0.1764
Where it stands

On the Amber List.

Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules on 2026-10-20. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.

Phoenix weekly: stopped falling by the rules, +24.1% above the Sep 2026 trough. Details below.

What changed

Since the previous scan.

Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.

Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.

Recorded timeline →

Where it sits in each cycle

a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's high

Monthly 1

Last bars
2Dr 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 1r
Confirmed low
$0.0671 · 2026-02-28
Position
8 of median ? (max ?)
Current low
$0.0980 · unconfirmed
Confirms above
$0.1764
Cycle-low confidence
—
Confirmed lows
1

Weekly 1

Last bars
2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
Confirmed low
$0.0997 · 2026-09-20
Position
5 of median 5 (max 12)
Current low
$0.1133 · unconfirmed
Confirms above
$0.1544
Cycle-low confidence
21%
Confirmed lows
8

Daily 1

Last bars
2Dr 2Dr 1r 3g 1g
Confirmed low
$0.1244 · 2026-10-13 (daily)
Position
8 of median 5 (max 16)
Current low
$0.1133 · unconfirmed
Confirms above
$0.1239
Cycle-low confidence
62%
Confirmed lows
66
The full read, in sentences
  • Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0671 (Feb 2026). Current low 0.098 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1764.
  • Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0997 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1133 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1544. Cycle-low confidence 21%.
  • Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.1244 (2026-10-13), day 8 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.1133 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.1239. Cycle-low confidence 62%.
  • Amber List: 65% below the 2026-05-09 high; +81% off the 365-day low.
  • Phoenix: 79% decline over 12 months, weekly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +24% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 0.1467).
  • Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.65 (cheap); -66% from the all-time high.

Has Centrifuge bottomed?

A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the CFG snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:

Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0671 from 2026-02-28. A newer candidate at $0.0980 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1764, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest monthly bar is still forming.

Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0997 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.1133 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1544, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.

Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.1244 from 2026-10-13. A newer candidate at $0.1133 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.1239, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.

How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.

How far is Centrifuge below its high?

The Coinbase price snapshot is 65.3% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.3502 from 2026-05-09. Separately, CoinGecko reports -69.6% relative to its all-time high of $0.4004 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.

Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.

The recorded history

scan observations, not exact transition times

First observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.

  1. Watch · Phoenix weekly → Amber List · Phoenix weekly
  2. Amber List · Phoenix weekly → Watch · Phoenix weekly
  3. First observed: Amber List · Phoenix weekly

Phoenix

stopped falling, by the rules
Peak
$0.4678 · Sep 2025
Trough
$0.0980 · Sep 2026
Decline
-79.1% over 12 months
Above trough
+24.1%
Monthly
not yet · trigger $0.1764
Weekly
confirmed (next-bar)
False bottom
none
Entry
pullback #1 low $0.0997 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.1467
Score 34.5
decline24.5
confirmation10
earliness0
stale0
false bottom0
bluechip0

Fundamentals

CoinGecko + DefiLlama, pulled 2026-10-21 .xlsx
Health47 / 100 · Thin
Liquidity (24h volume / market cap)
can you get out
11.83 %15.0 / 15
Supply overhang (FDV / market cap)
unlocked supply waiting to sell
1.79 x9.1 / 15
Size (market-cap rank)
survivorship
445 #0 / 15
Age on Coinbase
survived a cycle
1.1 yrs1.6 / 10
usagecould not look — no source data
tvlcould not look — no source data
momentumcould not look — no source data

4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.

Market cap
$58.0M
Fully diluted
$103.6M
24h volume
$6.9M
Circulating
380,384,016
All-time high
$0.4004 · 2025-08-24 (-69.6%)
Mayer multiple
0.65 · cheap
Pi cycle
0.462
On Coinbase since
2025-09-25 (392 bars)
CoinGecko id
centrifuge-2

Continue your cycle research

How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources