PAX Gold PAXG
PAXG cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch held mixed
27.4% below its 365-day high of $5,683 (2026-01-29), +5.8% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1g 2Ug 1r 2Dr
- Confirmed low
- $3,938 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median ? (max ?)
- Current low
- $3,938 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 1
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 3r 1r
- Confirmed low
- $3,957 · 2026-07-19
- Position
- 14 of median 5 (max 11)
- Current low
- $4,083 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $4,207
- Cycle-low confidence
- 58% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 14
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 3g 3r 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $4,083 · 2026-10-14 (daily)
- Position
- 7 of median 5 (max 18)
- Current low
- $4,110 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $4,153
- Cycle-low confidence
- 21%
- Confirmed lows
- 92
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 3,938 (Jun 2026).
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 3,957 (Jul 2026), week 14 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 4,083 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 4,207. Cycle-low confidence 58%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 4,083 (2026-10-14), day 7 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 4,110 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 4,153. Cycle-low confidence 21%.
- Watch: 27% below the 2026-01-29 high; +6% off the 365-day low.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.95 (cheap); -26% from the all-time high.
Has PAX Gold bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the PAXG snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $3,938 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $3,957 from 2026-07-19. A newer candidate at $4,083 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $4,207, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $4,083 from 2026-10-14. A newer candidate at $4,110 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $4,153, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is PAX Gold below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 27.4% below its rolling 365-day high of $5,683 from 2026-01-29. Separately, CoinGecko reports -26.6% relative to its all-time high of $5,619 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-23. 29 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List → Watch
- Watch → Amber List
- First observed: Watch
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 2.7 % | 7.3 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 58 # | 9 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.5 yrs | 2.7 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $1.80B
- Fully diluted
- $1.80B
- 24h volume
- $48.7M
- Circulating
- 435,066
- All-time high
- $5,619 · 2026-01-28 (-26.6%)
- Mayer multiple
- 0.948 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.475
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-05-08 (532 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- pax-gold
Continue your cycle research
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