Ethereum Classic ETC
ETC cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 52.8 mixed
57.9% below its 365-day high of $18.87 (2025-11-07), +32.3% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +32.3% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $6.01 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 4.5 (max 12)
- Current low
- $6.01 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 15
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $7.08 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 16)
- Current low
- $7.42 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $8.55
- Cycle-low confidence
- 57% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 59
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $7.42 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 4.0 (max 29)
- Current low
- $7.42 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 421
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 6.01 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 7.08 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 7.42 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 8.55. Cycle-low confidence 57%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 7.42 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Red List: 58% below the 2025-11-07 high; +32% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 86% decline over 20 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +32% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 8.78).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.02 (neutral); -56% vs the 200-week average; -94% from the all-time high.
Has Ethereum Classic bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the ETC snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $6.01 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $7.08 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $7.42 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $8.55, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $7.42 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Ethereum Classic below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 57.9% below its rolling 365-day high of $18.87 from 2025-11-07. Separately, CoinGecko reports -95.2% relative to its all-time high of $167.09 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $41.75 · Dec 2024
- Trough
- $6.01 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -85.6% over 20 months
- Above trough
- +32.3%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $9.10
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (5 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $7.08 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $8.78
| decline | 27.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 3.33 % | 9.4 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 67 # | 9 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 154120.0 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 11506.15 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 12.2 % | 6.2 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 6.1 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $1.40B
- Fully diluted
- $1.40B
- 24h volume
- $46.5M
- Circulating
- 158,367,880 of 210,700,000 max
- All-time high
- $167.09 · 2021-05-06 (-95.2%)
- TVL
- $121.3K (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $744
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- $7.7K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.016 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -56.2%
- Pi cycle
- 0.407
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-08-31 (2243 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- ethereum-classic
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources