Filecoin FIL
FIL cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 55 mixed
73.5% below its 365-day high of $3.92 (2025-11-07), +70.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
74% below its rolling 365-day high, 348 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +70.6% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3r 2Ug 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.6090 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 6 (max 11)
- Current low
- $0.6090 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 10
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Ug 1r 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.7600 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.6090 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 69% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 46
Daily
- Last bars
- 3r 2Dr 1r 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $1.01 · 2026-10-15 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5.0 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.9933 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $1.07
- Cycle-low confidence
- 57%
- Confirmed lows
- 365
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.609 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 6. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.76 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 69%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 1.01 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.9933 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 1.07. Cycle-low confidence 57%.
- Amber List: 74% below the 2025-11-07 high; +71% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 95% decline over 29 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +71% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 1.14).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.19 (neutral); -71% vs the 200-week average; -100% from the all-time high.
Has Filecoin bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the FIL snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.6090 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.7600 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $1.01 from 2026-10-15. A newer candidate at $0.9933 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $1.07, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Filecoin below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 73.5% below its rolling 365-day high of $3.92 from 2025-11-07. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.6% relative to its all-time high of $236.84 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $12.30 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $0.6090 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -95.0% over 29 months
- Above trough
- +70.6%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.8594
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (3 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.7600 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $1.14
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 10.37 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 2.35 x | 4.9 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 84 # | 6 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 874.0 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 301.42 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 10.3 % | 6.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.9 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $882.9M
- Fully diluted
- $2.07B
- 24h volume
- $91.6M
- Circulating
- 833,303,530
- All-time high
- $236.84 · 2021-04-01 (-99.6%)
- TVL
- $2.9M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $83.0K
- Revenue 30d
- $83.0K
- Fees 1y
- $2.0M
- Mayer multiple
- 1.194 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -70.8%
- Pi cycle
- 0.401
- On Coinbase since
- 2020-12-09 (2143 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- filecoin
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources