Hedera HBAR
HBAR cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 52.0 mixed
62.1% below its 365-day high of $0.2200 (2025-10-28), +29.8% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules on 2026-10-19. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +29.8% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 3g 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0642 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 4.5 (max 13)
- Current low
- $0.0642 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 41% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 2Dr 2Dr 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0719 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4.5 (max 15)
- Current low
- $0.0800 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0951
- Cycle-low confidence
- 68% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 33
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dg 3g 1r 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0800 · 2026-10-15 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 21)
- Current low
- $0.0814 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.0896
- Cycle-low confidence
- 19%
- Confirmed lows
- 260
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.06424 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 41%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.07193 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Current low 0.08001 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.09512. Cycle-low confidence 68%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.08001 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.0814 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.0896. Cycle-low confidence 19%.
- Red List: 62% below the 2025-10-28 high; +30% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 84% decline over 19 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +30% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.02 (neutral); -26% vs the 200-week average; -78% from the all-time high.
Has Hedera bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the HBAR snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0642 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0719 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $0.0800 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0951, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0800 from 2026-10-15. A newer candidate at $0.0814 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.0896, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Hedera below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 62.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2200 from 2025-10-28. Separately, CoinGecko reports -85.3% relative to its all-time high of $0.5692 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.4010 · Jan 2025
- Trough
- $0.0642 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -84.0% over 19 months
- Above trough
- +29.8%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.0869
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (4 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.0719 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.0900
| decline | 27.0 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.75 % | 4.2 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.14 x | 14.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 30 # | 12 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 19212.3 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 132.88 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 11.2 % | 6.1 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 4.0 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $4.47B
- Fully diluted
- $5.08B
- 24h volume
- $78.2M
- Circulating
- 43,997,753,970 of 50,000,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $0.5692 · 2021-09-15 (-85.3%)
- TVL
- $33.7M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $19.1K
- Revenue 30d
- $0
- Fees 1y
- $284.1K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.02 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -26.1%
- Pi cycle
- 0.41
- On Coinbase since
- 2022-10-13 (1470 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- hedera-hashgraph
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources