Kava KAVA
KAVA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 67.0 mixed
64.7% below its 365-day high of $0.2000 (2025-11-09), +78.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
Held on the Amber List: it last met the Amber List rules. Today it reads Watch; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +78.5% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 3g 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0397 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 3.0 (max 10)
- Current low
- $0.0396 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 46%
- Confirmed lows
- 9
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ur 1g 3r 2Ug 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0650 · 2026-10-11
- Position
- 2 of median 5 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.0650 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 26% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 32
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ur 2Ug 2Dg 2Ur 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0674 · 2026-10-19 (daily)
- Position
- 2 of median 5 (max 23)
- Current low
- $0.0674 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 36% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 246
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0397 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 3. Cycle-low confidence 46%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.065 (Oct 2026), week 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 26%.
- Daily: bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0674 (2026-10-19), day 2 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 36%.
- Amber List: 65% below the 2025-11-09 high; +78% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 97% decline over 36 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (3 bars)), now +78% above the trough; pullback #2 confirmed 2026-10-18.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.31 (neutral); -95% from the all-time high.
Has Kava bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the KAVA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0397 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0650 from 2026-10-11. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0674 from 2026-10-19. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Kava below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 64.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.2000 from 2025-11-09. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.2% relative to its all-time high of $9.12 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.27 · Jun 2023
- Trough
- $0.0396 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -96.9% over 36 months
- Above trough
- +78.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (3 bars)) · trigger $0.0568
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (14 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #2 low $0.0650 confirmed 2026-10-18 · trigger $0.0702
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 12.0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 9.79 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 366 # | 0 / 15 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 3.53 x | 10.8 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 3.8 yrs | 9.3 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
5 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $74.1M
- Fully diluted
- $74.1M
- 24h volume
- $7.3M
- Circulating
- 1,082,846,915
- All-time high
- $9.12 · 2021-08-30 (-99.2%)
- TVL
- $21.0M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 1.31 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.41
- On Coinbase since
- 2023-01-19 (1372 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- kava
Continue your cycle research
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