Sonic S
S cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Amber List Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 40 mixed
71.1% below its 365-day high of $0.1956 (2025-11-08), +197.9% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Amber List.
71% below its rolling 365-day high, 347 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +197.9% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 2Ug 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.0190 · 2026-06-30
- Position
- 4 of median 4 (max 4)
- Current low
- $0.0190 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 2
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Dg 2Ug 2Ur 1g
- Confirmed low
- $0.0369 · 2026-10-04
- Position
- 3 of median 4.0 (max 13)
- Current low
- $0.0369 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 36% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 13
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 3r 2Ug 1r 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.0492 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 5.0 (max 21)
- Current low
- $0.0492 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 52%
- Confirmed lows
- 81
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.01898 (Jun 2026), month 4 of a cycle that has typically run 4.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.03686 (Oct 2026), week 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 36%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.04922 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 52%.
- Amber List: 71% below the 2025-11-08 high; +198% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 96% decline over 11 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (3 bars)), now +198% above the trough; pullback #4 confirmed 2026-10-11.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.62 (neutral); -86% from the all-time high.
Has Sonic bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the S snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0190 from 2026-06-30. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0369 from 2026-10-04. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.0492 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Sonic below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 71.1% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.1956 from 2025-11-08. Separately, CoinGecko reports -94.5% relative to its all-time high of $1.03 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Red List · Phoenix weekly → Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Red List · Phoenix weekly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.4190 · Jul 2025
- Trough
- $0.0190 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -95.5% over 11 months
- Above trough
- +197.9%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (3 bars)) · trigger $0.0412
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (8 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #4 low $0.0369 confirmed 2026-10-11 · trigger $0.0440
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 25.0 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.0 x | 15.0 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 222 # | 3 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 1899.1 x | 0 / 20 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 8.21 x | 3.0 / 15 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 87.2 % | 10.0 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.3 yrs | 2.4 / 10 |
7 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $160.4M
- Fully diluted
- $160.4M
- 24h volume
- $40.1M
- Circulating
- 3,885,497,663
- All-time high
- $1.03 · 2025-01-04 (-94.5%)
- TVL
- $19.5M (chain)
- Fees 30d
- $6.9K
- Revenue 30d
- $6.9K
- Fees 1y
- $111.5K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.622 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.308
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-06-24 (485 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- sonic-3
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources