Bittensor TAO
TAO cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 41.8 mixed
49.7% below its 365-day high of $538.75 (2025-11-01), +89.4% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules on 2026-10-19. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +89.4% above the Feb 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $183.33 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 4.0 (max 5)
- Current low
- $143.10 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- —
- Confirmed lows
- 5
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 2Dr 1g
- Confirmed low
- $213.36 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.5 (max 11)
- Current low
- $254.00 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $301.62
- Cycle-low confidence
- 31% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 15
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ur 3g 1r
- Confirmed low
- $254.00 · 2026-10-18 (daily)
- Position
- 3 of median 4.5 (max 15)
- Current low
- $254.00 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 24%
- Confirmed lows
- 103
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 183.33 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4.
- Weekly: forming bar is a green inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 213.36 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5.5. Current low 254.00 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 301.62. Cycle-low confidence 31%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 254.00 (2026-10-18), day 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 24%.
- Watch: 50% below the 2025-11-01 high; +89% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 74% decline over 9 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +89% above the trough; pullback #7 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.11 (neutral); -46% from the all-time high.
Has Bittensor bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the TAO snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $183.33 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $213.36 from 2026-09-20. A newer candidate at $254.00 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $301.62, provided the candidate low is not undercut first. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $254.00 from 2026-10-18. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Bittensor below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 49.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $538.75 from 2025-11-01. Separately, CoinGecko reports -64.2% relative to its all-time high of $757.60 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $540.00 · May 2025
- Trough
- $143.10 · Feb 2026
- Decline
- -73.5% over 9 months
- Above trough
- +89.4%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $215.41
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- $287.55 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #7 low $213.36 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $273.50
| decline | 21.8 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 4.66 % | 13.9 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.85 x | 8.6 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 34 # | 9 / 15 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 111419.68 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 1.7 yrs | 3.3 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
5 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $3.46B
- Fully diluted
- $6.41B
- 24h volume
- $161.4M
- Circulating
- 11,339,646 of 21,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $757.60 · 2024-03-07 (-64.2%)
- TVL
- $31.1K (chain)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 1.107 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.475
- On Coinbase since
- 2025-02-20 (609 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- bittensor
Continue your cycle research
How to read a crypto cycle chart · Calculation rules and sources