Celestia TIA
TIA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 40 mixed
47.7% below its 365-day high of $1.18 (2025-11-07), +128.6% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
Held on the Watch: it last met the Watch rules. Today it meets no tier rule; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +123.3% above the Jun 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 1r 2Dg 2Ug 2Ug
- Confirmed low
- $0.2928 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 2.0 (max 12)
- Current low
- $0.2775 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 57% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 7
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Ug 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.3204 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 4.5 (max 16)
- Current low
- $0.3204 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 35%
- Confirmed lows
- 25
Daily
- Last bars
- 1r 2Dr 1r 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.5205 · 2026-10-15 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5.0 (max 22)
- Current low
- $0.5043 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 56% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 191
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a green 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.2928 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 2. Cycle-low confidence 57%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.3204 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 4.5. Cycle-low confidence 35%.
- Daily: bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.5205 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 56%.
- Watch: 48% below the 2025-11-07 high; +129% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 99% decline over 28 months, monthly swing low confirmed (late (3 bars)), now +123% above the trough; pullback #3 confirmed 2026-09-27.
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.59 (neutral); -97% from the all-time high.
Has Celestia bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the TIA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2928 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3204 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.5205 from 2026-10-15. The current candidate is marked confirmed.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Celestia below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 47.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $1.18 from 2025-11-07. Separately, CoinGecko reports -97.0% relative to its all-time high of $20.85 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly → Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
- First observed: Amber List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $21.14 · Feb 2024
- Trough
- $0.2775 · Jun 2026
- Decline
- -98.7% over 28 months
- Above trough
- +123.3%
- Monthly
- confirmed (late (3 bars)) · trigger $0.4363
- Weekly
- confirmed (late (2 bars))
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #3 low $0.3204 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.4305
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | -15 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 13.7 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.21 x | 13.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 123 # | 6 / 15 |
| Usage (price / annualized fees) fees people actually pay to use it (DefiLlama) | 13021.6 x | 0 / 20 |
| Fee momentum (30d vs prior 30d) is usage growing into the recovery | 17.2 % | 6.7 / 10 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 3.0 yrs | 7.1 / 10 |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
6 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $458.6M
- Fully diluted
- $553.4M
- 24h volume
- $62.8M
- Circulating
- 976,720,433
- All-time high
- $20.85 · 2024-02-10 (-97.0%)
- TVL
- $0 (protocol)
- Fees 30d
- $2.9K
- Revenue 30d
- $0
- Fees 1y
- $35.9K
- Mayer multiple
- 1.588 · neutral
- Pi cycle
- 0.47
- On Coinbase since
- 2023-11-01 (1086 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- celestia
Continue your cycle research
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