OriginTrail TRAC
TRAC cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Watch Recovering Phoenix · monthly · score 61.9 bullish lean
53.7% below its 365-day high of $0.8534 (2025-10-25), +57.5% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Watch.
54% below its rolling 365-day high, 361 days after the high.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +57.5% above the Jul 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 1g 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.2506 · 2026-07-31
- Position
- 3 of median 4 (max 9)
- Current low
- $0.2506 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 45%
- Confirmed lows
- 12
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 2Ug 1r 1r 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.2983 · 2026-09-20
- Position
- 5 of median 5.0 (max 25)
- Current low
- $0.2983 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 34% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 47
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 1r 2Dg 2Ur
- Confirmed low
- $0.3776 · 2026-10-20 (daily)
- Position
- 1 of median 5.0 (max 18)
- Current low
- $0.3765 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.4675
- Cycle-low confidence
- 45%
- Confirmed lows
- 325
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.2506 (Jul 2026), month 3 of a cycle that has typically run 4. Cycle-low confidence 45%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.2983 (Sep 2026), week 5 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Cycle-low confidence 34%.
- Daily: bar is a red 2-Up. Last confirmed swing low 0.3776 (2026-10-20), day 1 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.3765 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.4675. Cycle-low confidence 45%.
- Watch: 54% below the 2025-10-25 high; +58% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 84% decline over 28 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +58% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-27 (trigger 0.3699).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 1.19 (neutral); -18% vs the 200-week average; -85% from the all-time high.
Has OriginTrail bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the TRAC snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2506 from 2026-07-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.2983 from 2026-09-20. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.3776 from 2026-10-20. A newer candidate at $0.3765 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.4675, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is OriginTrail below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 53.7% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.8534 from 2025-10-25. Separately, CoinGecko reports -88.7% relative to its all-time high of $3.50 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Watch; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $1.55 · Mar 2024
- Trough
- $0.2506 · Jul 2026
- Decline
- -83.8% over 28 months
- Above trough
- +57.5%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.3864
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- $0.2845 · Jun 2025 (2 higher highs, then undercut)
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.2983 confirmed 2026-09-27 · trigger $0.3699
| decline | 26.9 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 10 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 8.6 % | 15.0 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.12 x | 14.1 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 193 # | 3 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 5.0 yrs | 10.0 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| tvl | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
4 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $202.6M
- Fully diluted
- $226.4M
- 24h volume
- $17.4M
- Circulating
- 447,274,118 of 500,000,000 max
- All-time high
- $3.50 · 2021-11-03 (-88.7%)
- Mayer multiple
- 1.189 · neutral
- vs 200-week avg
- -18.1%
- Pi cycle
- 0.45
- On Coinbase since
- 2021-11-02 (1815 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- origintrail
Continue your cycle research
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