Vara Network VARA
VARA cycle analysis · chart, confirmed lows and fundamentals
Red List Recovering held Phoenix · monthly · score 55 mixed
77.2% below its 365-day high of $0.00236 (2025-10-26), +47.8% off the 365-day low. Snapshot 2026-10-21 UTC.
On the Red List.
Held on the Red List: it last met the Red List rules. Today it reads Amber List; a tier moves down only after five consecutive scans below its rules.
Recovering: a monthly swing low has confirmed. The badge coexists with the tier; it is not a completed recovery.
Phoenix monthly: stopped falling by the rules, +47.8% above the Aug 2026 trough. Details below.
Since the previous scan.
Tier, recovering badge and Phoenix state are unchanged between these two observations.
Comparing 2026-10-20 with 2026-10-21 UTC. Classification, not price returns.
Recorded timeline →Where it sits in each cycle
a swing low confirms only when a later bar takes out the low bar's highMonthly
- Last bars
- 2Dr 2Dr 2Dg 2Ug 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.000364 · 2026-08-31
- Position
- 2 of median 8.5 (max 13)
- Current low
- $0.000364 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 40%
- Confirmed lows
- 5
Weekly
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1r 2Dr 1g 1r
- Confirmed low
- $0.00038 · 2026-09-13
- Position
- 6 of median 7 (max 24)
- Current low
- $0.00038 · confirmed
- Cycle-low confidence
- 25% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 20
Daily
- Last bars
- 2Ug 1g 3r 2Dr 2Dg
- Confirmed low
- $0.000495 · 2026-10-15 (daily)
- Position
- 6 of median 5 (max 27)
- Current low
- $0.000522 · unconfirmed
- Confirms above
- $0.000539
- Cycle-low confidence
- 19% · in band
- Confirmed lows
- 192
The full read, in sentences
- Monthly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.000364 (Aug 2026), month 2 of a cycle that has typically run 8.5. Cycle-low confidence 40%.
- Weekly: forming bar is a red inside bar. Last confirmed swing low 0.0003801 (Sep 2026), week 6 of a cycle that has typically run 7. Cycle-low confidence 25%.
- Daily: bar is a green 2-Down. Last confirmed swing low 0.000495 (2026-10-15), day 6 of a cycle that has typically run 5. Current low 0.0005221 is unconfirmed — it confirms above 0.0005387. Cycle-low confidence 19%.
- Red List: 77% below the 2025-10-26 high; +48% off the 365-day low.
- Phoenix: 100% decline over 35 months, monthly swing low confirmed (next-bar), now +48% above the trough; first weekly pullback after the low confirmed 2026-09-20 (trigger 0.0004347).
- Gauges: Mayer multiple 0.99 (cheap); -100% from the all-time high.
Has Vara Network bottomed?
A confirmed swing low is evidence of a price pattern, not proof of a final market bottom. Here is what the VARA snapshot records on 2026-10-21 UTC:
Monthly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.000364 from 2026-08-31. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest monthly bar is still forming.
Weekly: the last confirmed swing low is $0.00038 from 2026-09-13. The current candidate is marked confirmed. The latest weekly bar is still forming.
Daily: the last confirmed swing low is $0.000495 from 2026-10-15. A newer candidate at $0.000522 is unconfirmed; its confirmation level is above $0.000539, provided the candidate low is not undercut first.
How bottom confirmation works. Cycle-low confidence is a heuristic score, not a calibrated probability of a profitable trade.
How far is Vara Network below its high?
The Coinbase price snapshot is 77.2% below its rolling 365-day high of $0.00236 from 2025-10-26. Separately, CoinGecko reports -99.8% relative to its all-time high of $0.2701 in the fundamentals snapshot pulled 2026-10-21.
Different sources and observation times can produce different drawdowns. Compare crypto drawdowns and reference highs.
The recorded history
scan observations, not exact transition timesFirst observed 2026-09-19. 33 observations; absence from a captured scan is unmatched, never recovery.
- First observed: Red List; recovering · Phoenix monthly
Phoenix
stopped falling, by the rules- Peak
- $0.3300 · Sep 2023
- Trough
- $0.000364 · Aug 2026
- Decline
- -99.9% over 35 months
- Above trough
- +47.8%
- Monthly
- confirmed (next-bar) · trigger $0.000469
- Weekly
- confirmed (next-bar)
- False bottom
- none
- Entry
- pullback #1 low $0.00038 confirmed 2026-09-20 · trigger $0.000435
| decline | 30 |
| confirmation | 25 |
| earliness | 0 |
| stale | 0 |
| false bottom | 0 |
| bluechip | 0 |
Fundamentals
| Liquidity (24h volume / market cap) can you get out | 1.49 % | 3.3 / 15 |
| Supply overhang (FDV / market cap) unlocked supply waiting to sell | 1.75 x | 9.4 / 15 |
| Size (market-cap rank) survivorship | 1969 # | 0 / 15 |
| TVL backing (market cap / TVL) capital parked in it (DefiLlama) | 154.95 x | 0.0 / 15 |
| Age on Coinbase survived a cycle | 3.1 yrs | 7.4 / 10 |
| usage | could not look — no source data | |
| momentum | could not look — no source data | |
5 of 7 measurable; score renormalized over what was measurable.
- Market cap
- $3.6M
- Fully diluted
- $6.2M
- 24h volume
- $53.2K
- Circulating
- 5,728,223,288
- All-time high
- $0.2701 · 2023-09-20 (-99.8%)
- TVL
- $23.0K (chain)
- Fees 30d
- —
- Revenue 30d
- —
- Fees 1y
- —
- Mayer multiple
- 0.99 · cheap
- Pi cycle
- 0.292
- On Coinbase since
- 2023-09-20 (1128 bars)
- CoinGecko id
- vara-network
Continue your cycle research
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